The recent market situation is indeed quite interesting. On the surface, the greed index has soared to 62, and everyone is excited, but the liquidity crunch is hinting at another possibility — this boom may not be as genuine as it seems.

As of 3 PM on January 12, the total market capitalization remains steady at $3.05 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.92%, and trading volume fluctuating around $85 billion. BTC is holding near $91,906, up 1.47%, but its market share has climbed to 59.34%, indicating that funds are flowing from altcoins to mainstream coins. ETH is performing relatively actively, rising to $3,156, a 2.16% increase, with staking amounts continuously increasing, and the staking rate has reached 18.2%.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the bullish pattern for BTC has not been broken for now. The 50-day moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands are providing double support during recent pullbacks — this also explains why the psychological threshold of $90,000 is so easily defended. However, the 4-hour chart looks less optimistic. Although MACD is expanding, it has formed a triangle convergence pattern, with candlesticks oscillating between $91,000 and $92,000, indicating that bulls and bears are in a stalemate.

On-chain data shows that whales are continuously stacking buy orders near the $90,000 level. Tonight’s CPI data release is very likely to be the trigger that breaks this deadlock. Instead of blindly chasing the rally or bottom-fishing, it’s better to wait for this signal to materialize before making decisions.