Recently, I have been thinking about why I still remain optimistic about the upcoming market trends.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been correcting from a high level for over three months now. Such a decline at this level should be considered a larger-scale adjustment according to regular cycles. If we look at this market cycle from a weekly perspective, a normal bear market rebound window should appear around the fourth month, which is why I previously believed that early January might be a reversal time window.

So the question is, where will this bullish trend go? I personally think it needs to at least test the psychological threshold of . Why do I say that? The level has several key functions: firstly, it can effectively repair the weekly chart pattern; secondly, it is sufficient to clear out the arbitrage space accumulated by prior short leverage.

How the market develops after reaching indeed depends on policy movements and news developments. However, from a longer-term perspective, I tend to believe that BTC will maintain an upward trend this year.

This judgment is mainly based on two factors. First is the global macro environment — 2026 is generally regarded as an active year in the traditional financial cycle. As a secondary product of the financial system, crypto assets usually benefit from liquidity expansion. The second, more direct reason is the monetary policy direction of various central banks. The US has started liquidity injection after the rate hike cycle, and China is also promoting economic stimulus policies. Major economies worldwide are engaging in monetary easing, which means that incremental funds and liquidity will inevitably seek new asset allocation channels. Cryptocurrencies, as highly liquid assets, will attract attention.

Combining technical cycle analysis and macroeconomic logic, the current bullish outlook still has fundamental support.