#比特币价格上涨 Seeing this set of data on Polymarket, I am reminded of the 2016 market rally. At that time, Bitcoin rose from $600 to $1,000, and the market was full of similar predictions—various target prices flying everywhere. I remember the most conservative voices saying that reaching $5,000 would already be a huge good news, while the more aggressive ones were convinced that $10,000 was inevitable.

The current situation is somewhat different but also similar. There is a 80% probability forecast that Bitcoin will break $100,000 by 2026, and this consensus indeed reflects a collective market sentiment. But I need to remind everyone that these predictions come with inherent biases—the more optimistic gamblers are, the more likely they are to stack chips on the bullish side. History has shown us that when forecasts are too consistent, it often indicates that risks are quietly accumulating.

What is more worth paying attention to are the intermediate data: there is a 78% chance that Bitcoin will drop to $75,000, and a 58% chance it will fall to $65,000. This indicates that the market is actually leaving room for downside potential. This structural hedging expectation is truly a reflection of the participants' rationality.

From the 2013 bubble to the 2018 winter and up to now, I have seen too many cycles. Every upward phase is accompanied by such optimistic waves, and every correction catches people off guard. Instead of obsessing over whether the $100,000 target can be reached, it’s better to think clearly about whether your holdings can withstand any potential fluctuations in the middle. This is the question that those who have experienced real storms should be contemplating.