Recently, industry insiders held an in-depth discussion at a major platform's square, sharing their understanding of the current market. What impressed me the most is that they no longer explain the cycle solely through Bitcoin halving, but instead elevate the perspective to incorporate more complex global political and economic games.

According to historical patterns, Bitcoin halves every four years, with 2017 and 2021 marking the peaks of bull markets, followed by correction periods. Based on this logic, 2025 should ideally enter a relatively calm or retracement phase. However, in reality, the strong signals currently exhibited by the market are completely different. What is the reason behind this? The answer may be more macro than we think — the shift in the global political landscape is injecting new liquidity expectations.

Policy shifts during U.S. election years and the government's drive for steady growth have released energy far beyond the influence of Bitcoin halving itself. In other words, we may be entering a "super cycle" rather than a traditional four-year cycle.

Some believe Bitcoin will eventually reach $200,000. This is not a question of "if" but "when." While this optimistic outlook is easily embraced, we must also not ignore a fundamental fact: market trends are inherently woven from countless complex variables. Past experiences, though informative, should never be taken as absolute prophecy. Smart investors should maintain long-term strategic thinking while remaining humble and respectful of market volatility.

Of course, the market is still discussing hot topics like Meme coin booms, prediction markets, and other trending sectors...