Recently, there has been an interesting observation in market analysis—the classic four-year halving cycle theory of Bitcoin is being dismantled.

Data from mid-January shows that Bitcoin has moved beyond the era driven solely by halving events. Now, the real decision-making power is instead influenced by policy signals and macro policy trends. The cycle model, once considered a golden rule, is losing its influence significantly.

You may have also noticed that this year, the US stock market has been strong, but Bitcoin's performance has been relatively weak. The underlying logic is clear—liquidity expectations and policy timing are steering the market, rather than a general risk appetite boost.

According to the traditional cycle theory forecast, the early 2026 should mark the beginning of the second half of the cycle. But now, investors are generally re-evaluating this judgment. Policy factors have completely taken the lead.

Fiscal stimulus before the US elections, the blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policy—all these are creating a market environment similar to financial repression. Government spending remains high, real interest rates are suppressed, and traditional bonds and credit are losing their appeal to funds. Meanwhile, the allocation value of digital assets is rising.

The consensus among institutions is that Bitcoin will follow policy directions and regulatory actions in the future. Especially the legislative progress in the US crypto market, which will be a direct price-driving factor.

Institutional demand driven by ETFs remains a long-term support, but every policy move will directly determine whether new funds are willing to enter the market. This means that the logic of trading coins has completely changed—not just betting on halving price increases, but aligning with the rhythm of global macro policies.