2026-01-16 07:29:41

Take a look at the recent market rhythm. Bitcoin has a short-term strong support at around 90,000 yuan. If this level breaks, the direction will be basically confirmed, and it will most likely move down to the 70,000 range. Conversely, it will continue to fluctuate within this range and move higher.

The interesting part is that many influencers are now watching the same two chart patterns and have similar expectations. But this is precisely the most dangerous place. Based on historical experience, when too many people have a "consensus," the market often does not follow that logic.

My consistent judgment is—without a crazy bull market, there won't be a deep bear market. The sharp decline in 2022 was essentially because the 2021 bull market was too crazy. Cycles are like that; overextension inevitably leads to a pullback. Everyone should be aware of what stage we are in right now.

BTC-1.29%

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BoredStaker

· 5h ago

90,000 is the threshold. To be honest, I don't really believe that so many people got it right. It feels like a setup. Have you forgotten the tricks from the past two years? The more consensus there is, the more dangerous it becomes. Speaking of which, is this round a bull or a bear? Who really knows? I'm at a loss anyway. I'm a bit scared, but I want to buy the dip even more... This is probably the daily life of retail investors. Let's wait until the breakdown. Shouting about the direction now is just playing dirty.

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ForkPrince

· 5h ago

Consensus is a joke; the more people believe in the 90,000 support level, the easier it is to be pierced.

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GasFeeTherapist

· 5h ago

The 90,000 level is indeed being watched by too many people, and that's what I'm most afraid of. Consensus = accident scene, this time it's highly likely to reverse. I still remember the craziness of 2021, but this wave doesn't have that flavor, so don't be too pessimistic. If 90,000 breaks, it really depends on the 70,000s, but I bet it won't be that straightforward. Too many people say it will fall, but maybe we should think about a rebound instead. Cycles are meant to be proven wrong; whoever predicts accurately wins. This wave of market action is a bit strange. When big influencers unanimously turn bearish, it actually makes me a little more inclined to consider a rebound.

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0xInsomnia

· 6h ago

Consensus is the most dangerous. These big V's are all looking at one point, which makes me think I should do the opposite.

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nft_widow

· 6h ago

The 90,000 level is indeed a bottleneck, but what I’m more worried about is everyone looking at the same chart. Honestly, I was still sleepwalking during the 2022 wave, and only now do I understand what over-enthusiasm comes with a price. The stronger the consensus, the more the market moves in the opposite direction—this rule is ruthless. A bull run only leads to a bear market; we’re probably still in the testing phase now.

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 6h ago

The most consensus is actually the easiest to get trapped, this market is really playing us well.

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