XRP whale inflows hit a two-year low but are still falling. Why haven't on-chain positive signals been able to reverse the downward trend?

XRP recently fell into a strange “divergence”: on-chain data shows that whale selling pressure has significantly eased, with transfers to trading platforms dropping to a near two-year low. According to historical patterns, this should be a bullish signal, yet the price has reversed and dropped to a nearly three-day low of $2.07. What does this reflect? Is it a market neglect of on-chain data, or an overwhelming impact from the overall market environment?

Record Low Whale Inflows, Is Selling Pressure Truly Easing?

Based on XRPL on-chain monitoring data, whale transfers to major trading platforms have fallen to about 48 million XRP, then slightly rebounded to 56.1 million XRP. How important is this indicator? In on-chain analysis, whale inflows are often seen as a key reference for judging whether large holders are preparing to sell.

Why a Decrease in Whale Inflows Is a Bullish Signal

• Large token inflows to exchanges = potential selling pressure rising = bearish signal
• Decreased whale inflows = reduced selling intent = bullish signal
• The current level of 56.1 million XRP is in a low range since 2021, indicating large holders are more inclined to wait or lock their positions rather than sell

But Why Hasn’t the Price Reacted Immediately?

This is the most interesting part. Usually, when selling pressure eases, prices should get a breather. But XRP rebounded briefly and then weakened again, currently at $2.07, down 1.45% intraday, with a weekly decline of 2.65%.

Divergence Between Price Trends and On-Chain Data

This divergence is not without precedent. According to related news, XRP still gained about 7% over the past month, indicating the medium-term trend has not been fully broken. However, the short-term predicament stems from the market environment, not XRP’s fundamentals.

Market Environment as a Key Variable

In the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap has fallen about 1.09%, to around $3.23 trillion. In this environment, even if XRP’s on-chain structure improves, its short-term price remains vulnerable to overall market sentiment. In other words, XRP is experiencing a “forced decline” — not due to deteriorating fundamentals, but because of the overall market’s risk appetite decline.

What Does Historical Experience Suggest?

This isn’t XRP’s first time experiencing whale inflows at a historic low. According to news reports, after similar lows in whale inflows in 2021, XRP saw a significant rally. But whether this pattern repeats depends on two key factors:

What Conditions Are Needed for a Reversal?

1. Overall market sentiment improves — the broader market needs to stabilize for XRP to gain independent movement space
2. Changes in on-chain demand — low whale inflows are necessary but not sufficient; genuine buying interest must also emerge

From recent news, XRP does show some positive signals. The draft of the U.S. “Clear Act” proposes to classify XRP and other major cryptocurrencies under a similar regulatory category as Bitcoin. XRP ETFs listed in the U.S. have attracted net inflows of $1.23 billion. Additionally, technically, XRP is forming a bullish golden cross, with the 23-day moving average crossing above the 50-day moving average, indicating potential upward pressure toward the 200-day moving average at $2.3268.

What to Watch Next

For XRP investors, the key points to observe in the coming days are:

• Will whale inflows continue to stay low? — If they keep declining or remain at low levels, it indicates large holders are indeed waiting
• Overall market performance — the direction of BTC and ETH will directly influence XRP’s independent space
• ETF capital flows — whether institutional buying can offset market sentiment fluctuations

Summary

XRP is currently caught in a classic “good news vs. bad environment” conflict. On-chain data shows whale selling pressure has eased, which is a positive signal; however, the overall market decline and reduced risk appetite are suppressing this signal’s potential. Historical experience indicates that similar low inflow levels have been associated with rebound opportunities, but only if the overall market sentiment improves. The key now is to wait for a recovery in market risk appetite. Once the broader market stabilizes, XRP’s on-chain advantages could translate into upward price movement. Short-term volatility does not alter the medium-term trend; subsequent capital flows and market sentiment changes remain the most important indicators to watch.