ETH is currently like being trapped in a narrow box, repeatedly twisting, with high-level convergence, false breakouts occurring frequently, and the direction still undecided.

**Plain judgment:** This is not a trending market; it’s purely a tug-of-war at the end of a consolidation—both sides are trying to lure the other into making the first move, neither willing to act decisively.

**The current situation is clear:**

The current price is at 3305, with an active range between 3277 and 3326. Structurally, it’s neutral to weak, and the direction is still being chosen. The characteristic of this movement is one word—grinding. The range is narrowing, with repeated false breakouts, but no one can truly break out.

In the short term, volume continues to shrink. Only 587 contracts traded in 15 minutes, and on the 1-hour chart, volume has decreased from 13,335 to 2,511. What does this indicate? Very simple—**funds are waiting for a result, not placing early bets**. The 15-minute RSI is only 54, and the 1-hour RSI is 51, a typical scenario where neither side has the advantage.

**The most critical detail:** The position at 3308.86 repeatedly shows false breakouts. Whether on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart, you can see the price rises but gets pushed back down, yet no one continues to sell aggressively. Both bulls and bears are "fooling" each other, but no one is willing to really make a move. This kind of situation is most prone to problems—fearing a double-sided trap.

From a mid-term perspective, the trend is not bad yet, but a confirmation of direction is needed. The daily chart structure looks good—RSI at 61, MA7(3230) still above MA25(3097), so the medium-term bullish framework remains, not a bearish trend. However, the 4-hour RSI has already returned to neutral-weak, indicating that the energy from this recent rally has been largely absorbed.

The key points moving forward are as follows:

Looking upward, 3308 has repeatedly proven to be a false breakout level. To strengthen, the price must volume-break above the 3326 to 3367 zone. Once a solid breakout occurs here, the false breakout will truly end, and the bulls can regain control.

Looking downward, 3277 to 3273 is a structural support. If this level is broken and cannot be recovered, the next target is directly at 3057.

**Trading advice is simple:** operate back and forth within the range; the risk-reward ratio is too low. Only two meaningful scenarios: either volume breaks above 3326, proving bulls still have strength; or it falls below 3273 and cannot recover, indicating the high-level structure has failed and a correction has begun. Until then, no chasing, no gambling—that’s the best approach.

**Summary:** Multiple false breakouts indicate a lack of consensus in the market, and the shrinking volume reflects a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The key is who gets effectively broken through first—3273 or 3326—whoever gets broken first will mark the start of the next trend.