Since the beginning of the year, market concerns about a resurgence of inflation have been increasingly evident. Metal prices continue to strengthen, AI-driven energy infrastructure spending is rising, and the potential change of Federal Reserve Chair by U.S. President Trump in May adds policy uncertainty—all of which could push inflation to levels beyond expectations.

Current inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. If price pressures do not ease, the market's expectation of two rate cuts within the year may not be realized, and there is even a risk of no rate cuts throughout the year. Although the stock and bond markets have not fully priced in this risk, some institutions have begun adopting defensive strategies. Investors are generally watching whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will break through the key level of 4.3%—a breakout could mean greater pressure on inflation and financial markets.

Recent statements from new Federal Reserve officials are worth noting. As a voting member of the FOMC, he favors maintaining current interest rates while emphasizing decision-making based on data and closely monitoring potential abnormal cooling in the labor market. This dovish yet cautious tone introduces uncertainty into the market.

For the crypto market—especially Bitcoin—these economic signals present a dual impact. In the short term, if inflation concerns suppress the Fed's rate cut expectations, the higher interest rate environment will reduce market liquidity and increase the opportunity cost of non-yield assets like Bitcoin, potentially triggering a price correction. However, in the medium term, if the economy finds a balance between "not overheating nor cooling off"—with moderate inflation and a stable labor market—the Fed might gain room for future rate cuts. Once liquidity expectations begin to improve, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, is likely to attract renewed capital inflows.

The key lies in policy balance. If the Fed can control inflation while avoiding excessive tightening, market volatility may be alleviated, providing a positive support for the recovery of crypto assets. Meanwhile, on-chain assets are also seeking opportunities amid adjustments—Meme tokens on the BSC chain have shown mixed gains and losses today, with low-market-cap varieties performing relatively actively, indicating signs of market sentiment recovery.