【Critical Thinking Analysis】

It seems that Q2 2026 will mark the beginning of a bear market, but this judgment may surprise many.

The current situation is quite interesting—all positive factors are accumulating. The Trump administration is expected to issue stimulus checks in early 2026, which will indeed inject new liquidity. But the key point is that the market has already priced this in; it won't react only when the checks arrive.

Jerome Powell will step down in Q2 2026, and the new Fed chair taking over means a shift in policy tone. Major players are already creating a narrative—new leadership = new bull cycle, especially after Kevin Hasset has been portrayed as a bull market spokesperson. Treasury Secretary Bessant's remark that "2026 will be a great year for the economy" further fuels market sentiment.

There's also big news—VTB Bank of Russia plans to launch Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading services in 2026, which could be the largest institutional entry event in crypto history. But smart money has already started positioning, long before the news becomes widespread.

Quantitative tightening ended in December 2025, and quantitative easing will begin in mid-2026, with liquidity flowing back and a bullish macro outlook—all pointing toward prosperity.

The issue is: whales are not waiting for 2026. They are creating frenzy with these stories to attract latecomers. The real front-running phase is from now until Q1 2026, aiming to set the stage for a market top. When these positive factors actually materialize, market funds may already be exhausted.

Essentially, this is a carefully orchestrated super bull narrative—designed to lift others in 2026. Major players are not preparing for 2026; they are preparing others for 2026.

This is why Q2 is not a continuation of the bull market, but the start of a reversal.