Ignore the noise from news and the post-hoc comments. Use cycle mathematics to dissect the complete market trend of 2026—this is the most authentic market law.

**Early February: The Prelude to Collapse**

The market is already at its breaking point. The signs of exhaustion are evident from Bitcoin’s shrinking volume to new highs and Litecoin’s stall at the hundred-dollar mark. The crash in early February originated from a sudden breakdown in supply and demand. This kind of "spontaneous stampede" has occurred many times in history.

**May to August: The Dull Downtrend Period**

Next comes a four-month liquidity vacuum. Each rebound is weaker than the last, and each low point continues to probe lower. During this downward cycle, bottoming out is like catching a falling knife—it looks cheap but is actually dangerous.

**October: The Iron Bottom of the Four-Year Cycle**

This month, aligned with historical patterns, will bring the most severe retracement of 2026. Bitcoin may find its bottom around $50,000, while Ethereum might bottom near $1,800. This is not just a price decline but a ruthless liquidation of leverage positions across the entire market.

**Core Logic**

All current prosperity is borrowed and will ultimately need to be repaid in October, including principal and interest. Exiting in February sets the stage; October is the real opportunity to build positions.