#比特币2026年行情展望 $AXS $DASH $HUMA

[Market Observation] Central Bank Leadership Contest: Who Will Dominate the Next Liquidity Cycle?

The power transition of the Federal Reserve Chair is underway. The current chair, Powell, is embroiled in controversy and is highly likely to resign after his term ends in May. This competition involves three heavyweight candidates, each representing different policy orientations that will directly reshape global capital flows in the coming years.

**Market Significance of the Three Candidates**

Reid comes from a major international asset management firm and is the only candidate without a government background. His unique position is that his institution has long been deeply involved in the integration of traditional finance and digital assets—such as leading the launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF. What does this mean? It suggests that if he were to lead the Federal Reserve, the central bank’s understanding and attitude toward crypto assets could undergo a significant shift, upgrading from mere observers to active participants.

Hasset is a purely political candidate, a former advisor to Trump. If he takes office, the independence of the Federal Reserve could be severely curtailed. In the short term, this might lead to an unexpectedly large liquidity release—supporting Trump’s fiscal expansion plans. What does this mean for Bitcoin? Market insiders understand very well.

Waller is currently a Federal Reserve Board member and is highly regarded by the crypto community. He has consistently advocated for more aggressive rate cuts and is seen as a “dovish” representative. He would maintain policy continuity, but his clear inclination toward rate cuts is already a direct positive for the crypto market.

**Lock-in Effects of Policy Transition**

Regardless of who ultimately takes the helm, a common direction for central bank policy has been established—the redefinition of the liquidity environment.

If Reid takes office: the rate cut cycle may accelerate, and traditional finance’s acceptance of digital assets could increase. This is not just a matter of market sentiment but a systemic acknowledgment.

If Hasset takes office: the scale of money printing may exceed market expectations, with abundant liquidity seeking asset allocation outlets. Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-correlated asset will be reassessed.

If Waller takes office: expectations of rate cuts will be directly locked in, and market confidence in a loose monetary cycle will increase.

**Why Is This Leadership Change Especially Critical?**

The replacement of a central bank leader often marks the end of one era and the beginning of another. Historically, each transition of the Federal Reserve Chair has been accompanied by a dramatic reshuffling of global asset allocation. What makes this one special is that— for the first time— the intersection of traditional monetary policy and digital asset policy appears at the core decision-making level.

Whoever holds the printing press controls the direction of liquidity flow. And where liquidity goes, risk assets follow.

In the short term, market uncertainty will likely persist. But in the long run, this personnel change reflects a further shift in the global financial system’s attitude toward new asset classes.