#预测市场 Seeing the rollback incident on the Flow chain, I do feel a bit frustrated. It's not that there's a technical problem, but rather the deeper logic exposed by such events is alarming—what does it really mean when a chain can directly rollback transactions after a security incident? Where are the boundaries of decentralization?

I've been paying attention to on-chain prediction markets for a while. The zero-gas prediction market integrated by Solflare looks lively, but here's the problem—when market sentiment is driven by airdrop expectations and large holders shifting positions, retail investors are often the easiest to be exploited. I've seen too many people rush in to "participate in democratic predictions" only to get wrecked by sharp drops.

Most notably, the shift of big whales from HYPE to Lighter is worth noting. This isn't just capital flow; it's a signal re-pricing. But you have to ask yourself: is this signal driven by genuine demand or just another FOMO prelude? The Lighter team hinting at introducing Turing-complete zk circuits sounds impressive, but the word "hint" itself should raise suspicion—those who have been around on-chain know that between promises and implementation, there's not only technical difficulty but also uncontrollable factors like funding pressure and team execution.

The prediction market sector is indeed heating up, but during this process, it's important to distinguish between genuine ecosystem demand and bubbles inflated by capital speculation. When the wave of position switching arrives, it's often the best time for the bagholders to jump in.