#美联储降息 Seeing the Federal Reserve minutes, I am actually more cautious. On the surface, most officials support further rate cuts, but a closer look reveals some sharp disagreements—they haven't even decided whether inflation or unemployment is the real threat. This kind of indecisiveness is often the easiest for market players to exploit.

Remember those arguments a few years ago that "Fed easing is an opportunity"? The result was a rollercoaster of rate cut expectations, and big influencers in the crypto world also wavered. I've seen too many people get caught off guard by this policy uncertainty—either chasing highs to buy in or getting shaken out when stops are hit. Unemployment rising to 4.6% and consumer prices falling below expectations are contradictory signals. Frankly, the Fed itself hasn't figured out its next move.

The key point is that the expectation to keep rates unchanged until January 2026 is strengthening, which means the market's expectation of a rate cut pace will be disrupted. My advice is: don't be fooled by the story of "easing is coming." The real opportunity is never in the expectation itself but in when that expectation is broken. The smartest move now is to reduce leverage, tidy up risk exposure, and wait until these disagreements concretely manifest in data before taking action. Longevity is more important than rushing to act.