Recently, the Trump administration has intensified its stance towards the Federal Reserve, with the Department of Justice issuing a grand jury subpoena to the Fed—this is a first in history. This signals a strong message: the government wants to influence monetary policy.

The key question now is whether Powell will choose to stay on the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends in May this year. If he does, it could create a confrontation within the Fed between two forces: one led by Powell, and the other representing the new candidate Trump wants to push forward.

Insiders say that even if Powell stays, it would only be to protect the Fed’s independence and he definitely wouldn’t act as a "shadow chairman." But in that case, Trump's original plan would be disrupted—he wanted to fill the Fed Board with officials who support significant rate cuts, and now that’s no longer possible.

As a result, there would be a real check and balance within the Fed. Whatever candidate Trump finally nominates to succeed Powell, they will face considerable resistance. Supporters of Powell see this as a good outcome. However, analysts believe that this uncertainty could cause investors to become conflicted—the market’s expectations for the Fed’s policy direction may become blurred, and the trajectory of risk assets like Bitcoin could also face new variables.