Recently, an interesting phenomenon has caught attention—the correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has reversed. When US stocks fall, Bitcoin rises; when US stocks rise, Bitcoin tends to stall, which is quite common in a bear market. Even more interesting is that the influence of traditional economic data on the market has significantly diminished—CPI, PPI, unemployment data, which used to be major market movers, now hardly cause any big waves.

The divergence in capital flows has become quite evident. Gold and silver continue to rise in the absence of new rounds of Federal Reserve easing, drawing away a lot of incremental funds from the crypto space. You see US stocks go up, gold and silver also rise, but Bitcoin’s reaction is becoming increasingly calm, which precisely indicates the direction of capital flow.

Looking ahead, the trend toward regulation and standardization in the crypto space is irreversible. Various laws are becoming more完善, and tax rules are becoming clearer. This is actually a positive for domestic players—no need to overly worry about regulatory risks—but caution is necessary to prevent scams, as funds lost to fraud are often unprotected.

In terms of investment strategy, Bitcoin remains the core allocation. Mainstream public chains like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB still have room for imagination. More interesting is the trend of on-chain RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) and the integration with US stock tokenization—随着美国各项政策推进，传统金融和链上金融的界限会越来越模糊。In this process, the privacy sector deserves special attention, because the truly active players in this field are mostly seasoned crypto veterans and geeks, and capital flowing into this area is highly probable. Conversely, altcoins without real-world applications will have increasingly narrow survival spaces. When choosing coins, one must be diligent and do thorough research.

Regarding profitability, many people's difficulties often stem from two aspects: insufficiently accurate grasp of the big trend, and misjudgment of cycle levels and entry points. When they enter the market, they get caught, and then a quick sell-off causes the trend to reverse upward—such cycles are very draining. Using the right methods to judge the trend is relatively easier, but pinpointing the exact entry level requires time accumulation and continuous review.

Specifically, for BTC’s price prediction, in the short term, even if it pulls back to 920-940 in January, it’s unlikely to easily surge to around 100,000 afterward. Without Fed easing, Bitcoin’s takeoff is quite difficult, and the probability of breaking below 806 is relatively high, possibly dropping to the 60,000-70,000 range. However, it’s currently hard to specify an exact timeframe; ongoing observation of the market’s specific movements is necessary.

Next week’s key focus is whether the market will fall first and then rise. But two variables still exist—Japan’s interest rate hikes and US geopolitical policy actions. These factors are beyond simple market analysis and can only be monitored as they develop.