#比特币储备战略 After reviewing the latest perspectives from Fidelity and Grayscale, you can truly feel the rhythm of 2026 changing—the game theory logic behind national-level Bitcoin reserves is beginning to emerge.

The core logic is clear: once a country includes BTC in its foreign exchange reserves, the subsequent follow-up pressure will cascade like dominoes. This is nothing new, but now there is real money validating it. Pakistan exploring Bitcoin reserves, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and the US dollar under pressure—these conditions stacking up indeed create room for incremental capital to enter.

But there's a detail that is easily overlooked: the Vice President of Research at Fidelity explicitly mentioned the risk—if these institutions are forced to sell in a bear market, prices will also come under pressure. This means that the national-level reserve allocation itself is not purely positive; the key still depends on overall supply and demand and market sentiment.

Has the four-year cycle disappeared? My observation is: the cycle framework is still there, just the participants have changed. Traditional funds, institutions, and national-level entries may make volatility more complex and less "pure." This provides insights for follow-the-leader strategies—top traders should now be adjusting their position sizes and risk exposure, rather than simply adding positions and chasing highs.

Grayscale predicts a new high in the first half of 2026; this timeframe is worth noting. But I am more concerned about: by then, how many traders will be laughing because they bought the dip early, and how many will be crying for chasing highs. Practice makes perfect—observe quietly and wait for the changes.