Recently, I’ve been paying attention to the upcoming global economic data schedule for next week, and it feels like the next few days could be a key window in the first half of this year. The focus of global markets is indeed quite concentrated—China is verifying growth momentum, Europe and the US are confirming inflation trends, and major central banks are weighing policy directions. These factors combined will have a fairly direct impact on the crypto market.

**First, let’s talk about China’s situation**

On Monday, the full-year GDP data for 2025 will be released, with market expectations of growth between 5.2% and 5.5%. You might ask why this is important—because if the data exceeds expectations, it indicates that China’s economic recovery has a solid foundation, and global risk appetite will rise accordingly. Risk assets like Bitcoin will naturally benefit from this wave. Conversely, if the data is weaker than expected, the market will bet on continued monetary policy easing, which indirectly benefits liquidity-sensitive crypto assets.

A more direct signal comes from the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes released on the same day. If the 1-year LPR is cut, it’s a clear sign of liquidity easing, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are sensitive to funding conditions, will benefit significantly. Not only cryptocurrencies, but RWA tokens related to industrial metals might also see valuation increases.

**The situation in Europe and the US might be more complex**

From Tuesday to Thursday, the Eurozone, UK, and US will sequentially release inflation data such as December CPI and core PCE. The current market consensus is that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will each cut interest rates 3-4 times this year, but this expectation is based on the assumption that inflation will continue to decline. If the data indeed shows inflation continuing downward, it will reinforce this expectation, leading to a weaker dollar and upward movement in the valuation center of crypto assets.

However, if inflation proves more sticky than expected and refuses to come down, concerns will arise about delaying rate cuts. In the short term, this will definitely dampen market sentiment, especially putting more pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

**Overall view**

This week is essentially a re-pricing process of global liquidity expectations. Good data will act as a catalyst for risk assets; poor data will also prompt central banks to adjust policies, ultimately still supporting liquidity. No matter how it unfolds, the market probably won’t be very quiet in the short term. For holders, the volatility during this period could be quite significant, so be mentally prepared.