Full Market Structure Assessment: Is Crypto in a Bear Market Now?

Based on a comprehensive review of on-chain data and technical analysis, the crypto market is not yet in a confirmed bear market, but it is in a high-risk mid-cycle breakdown phase that could transition into a full bear market if current stress levels persist. The overall crypto market has lost over $700 billion in the past month, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below the critical $100,000 level multiple times.

I. Market Status: Mid-Cycle Breakdown

The current market phase resembles historical mid-cycle corrections rather than end-of-cycle tops, but the risk of transition is high: Conclusion: The market is in a mid-cycle breakdown phase. A confirmed bear run requires three specific conditions to be met (detailed below).On-Chain Cost Basis: Bitcoin is trading near the realized price of the 6–12 month holder cohort (around $94,600). When the price falls below this “bull-cycle conviction buyers’” cost basis, it indicates market structure weakening—a signal seen in previous mid-cycle breaks, not necessarily cycle tops.Market Momentum (MACD): While Bitcoin’s MACD is deeply negative, the overall crypto market’s average MACD is slightly positive (0.02), with 58% of assets still holding positive momentum. This mixed reading indicates a transition phase, as full bear markets historically see 90%+ of assets with negative MACD.

II. Critical Technical Patterns and Support Levels

Bitcoin’s technical structure is at a major turning point, placing the market in a precarious zone: Loss of 365-Day Moving Average (MA): Bitcoin has broken below its most important long-term structural pivot, the 365-day MA (near $102,000). Historically, losing this MA (as seen in December 2021) has preceded full bear markets. Failure to reclaim this level quickly is the strongest technical argument for a regime shift.RSI Oversold Conditions: Market-wide Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are in oversold territory, a condition typical of mid-cycle corrections (like May–July 2021 or August 2024), where stress is high but the long-term trend has not yet fully reversed.

III. Sentiment and Capitulation Signals

Current investor sentiment is reflective of deep bear markets, signaling mass capitulation: Fear & Greed Index: The index has plummeted to 10 (“Extreme Fear”), a level comparable to confirmed bear-market stress seen in early and mid-2022. This signals widespread investor exhaustion and capitulation but does not alone confirm the end of a bull cycle.

IV. Three Conditions for Confirmed Bear Market

For the market to officially transition from a mid-cycle breakdown to a full bear market, all three of the following conditions must be met: Sustained 365-Day MA Failure: Bitcoin must remain definitively below the $102,000 (365-day MA) for a period of 4–6 weeks.Long-Term Holder Distribution: Long-term holder (LTH) selling must continue, with distribution exceeding 1 million BTC over a 60-day period.Market-Wide Negative Momentum: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) must flip fully negative across the entire market, moving from the current 58% positive momentum to 90%+ negative.