Who is the most favorable candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair for the crypto market? Analysis of the candidate list and key timelines.

The change of Fed chairman affects the global market: Hasset's lead may detonate the crypto Christmas market, and the hawkish Walsh may become the biggest bearish. This article analyzes the policy stances of the top five popular candidates and their impact on the crypto industry. (Summary: December interest rate cut confirmed?Fed mouthpiece: inflation data rises moderately) (Background addendum: Trump announces the new chairman of the Fed as soon as Christmas, and White House Chief Economic Adviser Hassett is most likely to take over) At present, Fed Chairman Powell's term of office will expire in May 2026, and yesterday US Treasury Secretary Bason revealed that Trump has a high chance of announcing the nominee for the next Fed chairman before Christmas. The Fed chairman's monetary policy bias will largely influence the pace and destination of future rate cuts. As the most sensitive market to liquidity and interest rates, the next Fed chairman's monetary policy stance is dove or hawk, and this article will give a glimpse of the current policy stance of the hot candidates and the impact of their selection on the crypto industry, the likelihood of selection, and the key timelines. 1. Kevin Hassett: The most dovish candidate, Trump's economic adviser (the most bullish) Hassett is the former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Trump's core economic think tank, and he is the candidate who can bring Trump's interest rate cut will into the Federal Reserve. He has publicly expressed his support for deeper and faster interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, while his friendly attitude towards the crypto market, which he sees as a hedge against inflation and may promote the deregulation of the crypto market. If Hassett is elected Fed chairman, the crypto market, which is sensitive to high interest rates, is an absolute bullish, and a quick and sharp rate cut will bring the next liquid bull market for risk assets. 2. Kevin Warsh: The most hawkish candidate, supporting CBDC against decentralization (the most bearish) Kevin Warsh is a former Fed director and Hoover Institution researcher, and monetary policy has been in a hawkish position for a long time, leaning towards tightening interest rates and prioritizing inflation prevention (and advocating for reducing the central bank's balance sheet). If he takes office, he could delay or limit the rapid decline in interest rates, which could suppress valuations and inflows into crypto-risk assets. At the same time, Walsh has publicly supported the development of CBDC (central bank digital currency) in the United States, and Walsh's rise to power is also negative for Crypto fundamentalism, which pursues decentralization and resistance to censorship. 3. Christopher Waller: Moderate candidate, supporting stablecoins (neutral) Waller is the current director of the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy position is moderate and dovish, supports gradual interest rate cuts, and has publicly stated that digital assets can be used as a supplement to payment instruments, and believes that under the premise of proper supervision, stablecoins can enhance the status of the US dollar. Waller's moderate style is likely to limit the possibility of substantial easing, and if he takes office, the evolution of the future path of interest rates will require further analysis of the composition of the overall voting committee. 4. Rick Rieder: Neutral dove, bullish BTC and other mainstream assets (bullish) Rieder is BlackRock's global fixed income leader, directly controlling the allocation of trillions of US dollars; At the same time, he believes that in the environment of convergence of traditional asset correlations, cryptocurrencies have unique hedging and hedging value, calling Bitcoin the gold of the 21st century. If it comes to power, it may attract institutional funds to allocate to the crypto market, calm the volatility of the crypto market, and benefit mainstream crypto assets such as BTC. 5. Michelle Bowman: Hawkish candidate, rarely expressed his stance on the crypto market (bearish) Bowman is the current director of the Federal Reserve Board, and his hawkish monetary policy position is no worse than Walsh's, and he clearly advocates the need to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time under the pressure of the market and the Trump administration, and has repeatedly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates again; The five candidates are currently in the presidential nomination stage, and the prediction market is that Hassett leads the market with a 52% chance of nomination, with Bloomberg exclusively reporting that Hassett is the frontrunner, followed by Christopher Waller with a 22% chance of nomination, Walsh Kevin Warsh with a 19% chance of nomination, followed by Rick Rieder with a 2% chance and Michelle Bowman with a 1% chance. The first stage is for the Trump team to interview and screen candidates and determine the final nominee, and there is only one nominee. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant's speech, Trump will officially announce the nominee before Christmas, and if it is confirmed that Hassett is nominated, there is a high probability that the crypto market will usher in Christmas. In the second phase, nominations are confirmed and then voted on by the Senate, which is expected to hold hearings in January-February 2026 and committee and plenary votes in March-April 2026. It should be noted that there is still a 32% chance in Polymarket that Trump will not officially announce the nominee in December. Summary: At present, Hasset's election probability is leading, but it has not yet been reflected in bond yields and risk asset prices, and we need to continue to monitor the progress of this event in the future. In the short term, if Trump confirms the nomination of Hassett before Christmas, there is a high probability that the crypto market will usher in Christmas, and in the long run, the monetary policy stance of the next Fed chairman will also directly affect the price performance of risk assets in the next four years. Related reports The probability of an interest rate cut in December plummeted to 33%!Minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting: internal divisions are super serious, and the good news is only to stop shrinking the balance sheetThe Fed has no consensus on a rate cut in December, and the black box of information has become an unexploded Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: AI is not a bubble, technology companies actually have cash flow, and a good economy does not mean that interest rates will be cut immediately.