Market Manipulation 101 Tutorial
> Mixed signals in employment data
> The market has no clear direction
> Morgan Stanley suddenly lowers December Fed rate cut expectations
> Market free fall
News + Timing = Perfect Harvest.
Mixed data makes the market hesitant → Large institutions release news → Retail investors panic sell → Institutions buy at low prices.
Classic manipulation tactics.
Don't follow the panic, hold onto your spot.

HYPE breaks through 40 dollars against the trend, should we chase it?
How much do you know about HYPE?
What is the revenue model of HYPE?
How does the agreement perform?
Where is the risk?
Do you understand HYPE?
Where are the entry point and stop loss?
Key Performance Indicators:
- Stably above $40.50
- Is the 1-hour RSI overbought (>70)
- Daily trading volume increases
- Is the funding rate skyrocketing (>>0.02% warning for excessive leverage)
To chase HYPE, you need to have a system at the very least:
The true power of compound interest lies in not making mistakes.
From Emotion Slave → Mark

$ASTER potential for main rise in the coming months.
Data:
• Daily income $2.5-3M used for buybacks
• This year, a privacy L1 chain will be launched.
• CZ endorsement, buy $2M @ ~$0.91
Polar Bear's View:
Stable income + profit repurchase + CZ endorsement = long-term logic established.
But a reminder:
• Build positions in batches (0.8 - 1)
• Run spot grid (刷波动)
Long-term optimism ≠ going all in right now.
Patience wins, chasing the rise loses.

Will Aster be the marker for our mothership Spot grid?
The asset Aster:
✅ CZ Spot purchase of 2 million, 24-hour increase of over 12%
✅The S4 buyback is about to start, expected to consume 40-60 million ASTER, supply deflation.
✅ Large trading volume and sufficient volatility; in our tests, we have achieved 5% Spot grid arbitrage in less than two weeks.
✅Solid fundamentals, backed by CZ + buyback mechanism + protocol income support
This asset is the selection of the mother ship Spot grid.
But first ask yourself: Can you take this opportunity?
Many people rush in when we say a 5% arbitrage in t

Privacy Coin ZEC rises 75%? Don't rush to fear of missing out (FOMO), first ask yourself three questions.
Seeing ZEC rise 75% in 30 days, DASH rise 70%, ZEN soaring 101%, while BTC falls 13% and ETH falls 18%, Privacy Coins are taking off against the trend. Want to buy?
Hold on, do you really understand what you're buying?
This wave of rise is indeed supported by fundamentals:
✅ ZEC halving expectation (block reward decreases from 3.125 to 1.5625)
✅ Institutional buying (Leap Therapeutics invested $50 million to buy 200,000 ZEC)
✅ Regulatory tightening drives demand for Privacy Coin (E

BTC falls below 99K, is it completely bearish?
Munger would say: This panic is exactly the opportunity.
U.S. stocks plummeted (Dow -1.7%, Nasdaq -2.3%), BTC fell below $99K to a low of 97k, and the market began to panic.
It took less than 7 days to go from celebrating $107K to doomsday theories?
Munger once said: We succeed not because we are good at solving problems, but because we are good at staying away from problems.
Those who are fully leveraged and chasing highs are now experiencing the pain of solving problems, with liquidation, clearing, and panic selling.
The defensive strategy chose

Advice for 20-year-olds who often get liquidated:
1. Do not trade with all your assets; all in refers to all assets, not to all in for each position.
2. Accumulate assets, do not use them up.
3. Maintain liquidity, in addition to living costs, also help assets appreciate.
4. Leverage is a tool, but it should be used in moderation. Do not trade impulsively due to youthful exuberance.
5. Make good use of money, let money work for you.
6. Don't rush, time is the best friend.
7. Maintain fitness, keep the body and mind healthy, and have a clean mind,
Meditation, facing the inner self.
8. Rejec

Why didn't BTC have a big pump after the US government shutdown ended?
The answer is simple: the good news has been fully released.
The market has already priced in the news.
Closing the door means the reason to sell.
Stay on the sidelines.
Not every message requires a reaction; wait for a deterministic structure to appear before entering the market.
Protect the principal > Chase the hotspots

BTC retraced from 106,000 to 103,000, never go all-in
Remember a few days ago when the US government reopened and BTC broke through 106,000? The excitement was everywhere!
At that time, 70% of people were bullish, shouting about liquidity recovery, a bull run, and political favorable factors.
And what happened? BTC pulled back from $107K to $103K, trapping those who chased the high.
The risk signals at that time were obvious:
- 1-hour RSI at 77.5, overbought, short-term indicators overheated
- Daily chart still below key moving averages, the medium-term trend not reversed
- Large whale

$UNI Can I enter? 🦄
Arctic Bear $UNI opinion:
Coins with stable income + profit buyback are worth paying attention to.
Following $PUMP, $HYPE, $ASTER, today adding $UNI.
Having a genuine user base + protocol revenue = long-term logic is sound.
But in the short term:
• Institutional transfer of coins to exchanges = possible sell-off
• 40% increase = risk of chasing the high
Defensive approach:
Spot grid trading benefits from volatility, avoid chasing highs, let the price fluctuate back and forth.
Long-term optimism does not mean entering now.

BTC breaks through $106,000. Is the bull market back? Don't rush to go all-in!
The US government is about to reopen, BTC surges past 106K, and many are shouting that the bull market has returned!
The daily chart remains below all moving averages, RSI short-term is already overbought at 77.5.
This move looks more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
Check the data carefully:
Large whales (>10,000 BTC) have been net sellers for 3 consecutive months, continuously distributing.
The daily MACD still shows a bearish outlook; a break above $108K is needed to confirm a bull market st

Stimulus checks$2000 + Government shutdown ends = Bull market restart?
The market is driven by news.
CEXs love these moments.
Liquidation is their biggest profit source.
Stay safe, farm volatility.

AIA surges 350%?
Defensive approach: neither chasing nor shorting.
Let's look at the data:
• 4H RSI 88.6, 1D RSI 82.3 — extremely overbought
• Top 5 addresses hold 75% — highly concentrated control
• OI surges 244% — short squeeze + distribution structure
• Funding rate turns negative — bulls crowded to the point of paying shorts
Bull liquidation zones at $7.25, a break below equals a waterfall decline.
But the defensive approach is neither to chase nor to short.
Why?
❌ Chasing longs = taking on risk
87% of supply is unlocked, continuous selling pressure from 2026 onwards, what can support the

AIA surges 350%?
Defensive approach: neither chase nor short.
Let's look at the data:
• 4H RSI 88.6, 1D RSI 82.3 — extremely overbought
• Top 5 addresses hold 75% — highly centralized control
• OI skyrocketed 244% — short squeeze + distribution structure
• Funding rate turned negative — bullish crowd paying shorts
Long liquidation zones are dense around $7.25; breaking below = waterfall decline.
But the defensive approach neither chases nor shorts.
Why?
❌ Chasing longs = taking on risk
87% of supply is unlocked, continuous selling pressure from 2026 onwards, what can support the valuation?
❌ B

High utilization rate = higher probability of being unable to withdraw funds.
Currently, the practice of cycle lending is widespread. If a significant drop triggers a chain of liquidations
→ Bad debt occurs
→ You will bear protocol-level risk.
Survive first, then talk about victory.
@navi_protocol