June 29, 2026 — According to Gate market data, Bitcoin is trading at $59,612, marking a drop of over 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to approximately $2.07 trillion. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) shares are holding near $193, with a market cap around $4.66 trillion. AI cloud infrastructure provider CoreWeave (CRWV) has seen its market cap surge from about $35.7 billion in 2025 to $64.4 billion. The inverse movement of these numbers underscores a market-validated thesis: a significant portion of institutional capital is shifting from crypto assets to AI infrastructure. But how much exactly? Is this just a temporary narrative rotation, or a structural capital reset? Let’s quantify the shift using verifiable data.
Bitcoin in June 2026: A Data-Driven Landscape
Let’s start with the crypto market itself. On June 16, Bitcoin was still at $67,203, but it has steadily declined, bottoming out at $58,188 on June 25. Early on June 29, it briefly dipped to $58,888. The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 12, deep into the "Extreme Fear" zone, where it has lingered for several weeks.
ETF capital flows provide the most direct window into institutional behavior. For the week ending June 26, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.79 billion, marking the second-largest weekly outflow since launch. On June 26 alone, $445 million exited, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $444.5 million—its largest single-day redemption since debuting in January 2024. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling $4.33 billion. On a monthly basis, May saw net outflows of $2.43 billion, and June has already surpassed $2.2 billion. This two-month streak has pushed 2026’s annual ETF flows into negative territory.
Since inception, BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted $60.77 billion in inflows, but its net assets now stand at just $44.42 billion. This means the average IBIT investor faces a paper loss of about 40%. The shift from "rushing in" to "lining up to exit" has unfolded in less than half a year.
The Scale of AI Capital Expenditure: Understanding the Shift
To quantify the scale of capital migration, we first need to understand how much capital the AI industry is absorbing.
According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) annual economic report released in June 2026, the world’s five largest hyperscale cloud providers are expected to invest over $1 trillion in AI-related projects from 2025 through the end of 2026. Other reports estimate that, by the end of 2026, cumulative AI-related capital expenditures by global hyperscale cloud providers and emerging AI cloud platforms will reach around $2 trillion. Morgan Stanley estimates that global annual AI investment has now risen to between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion.
What do these numbers mean? Annual AI-related capital expenditures alone amount to 50%–72% of the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization. When two asset classes differ so dramatically in scale, capital flow from the smaller to the larger market becomes almost inevitable—this isn’t just "diversion," it’s "siphoning."
Barclays provides further evidence: in 2026, hyperscale cloud providers have issued over $200 billion in investment-grade bonds, with the annual total potentially reaching $240 billion. This even surpasses the annual bond issuance of major US banks. Financing for AI infrastructure is not only massive in scale but is also absorbing credit and liquidity that could have been allocated to other assets in traditional financial markets.
Nvidia & CoreWeave: Micro-Level Evidence of Capital Pools
Breaking down the macro data into specific targets reveals capital flows more clearly.
Nvidia (NVDA) is the most direct beneficiary of AI capital expenditures. In Q4 2025, revenue reached $68.1 billion, up 20% quarter-over-quarter and 73% year-over-year, with a gross margin holding at 75%. Its market cap stands at about $4.66 trillion. Despite a recent pullback from peak prices, institutional expectations for its long-term AI demand remain robust.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is an even more symbolic case. This AI cloud infrastructure provider posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.078 billion, up 112% year-over-year. As of the end of Q1, its remaining performance obligations totaled $98.8 billion, with 36% expected to be recognized as revenue within the next 24 months. The company has already secured 90% of its target for "annual recurring revenue of $30 billion by the end of 2027." Analysts project CoreWeave’s median revenue to reach $12.59 billion in 2026, with a sharp increase to $25.345 billion in 2027.
CoreWeave’s growth trajectory stands in stark contrast to crypto mining companies. According to BlackRock Digital Assets Head Robbie Mitchnick, some Bitcoin miners have shifted from pure mining operations to providing power and infrastructure for AI data centers, signing multi-billion-dollar contracts with firms like Core Scientific, IREN, HIVE Digital, and TeraWulf. Capital previously used to purchase mining rigs and expand mining farms is now being reallocated to AI data center construction—this is a direct industrial-level reflection of capital migration.
Quantitative Modeling: How Much Capital Has Shifted from Crypto to AI?
Based on available data, we can model the migration across three dimensions:
Dimension One: ETF Outflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of about $4.66 billion from May to June (May: $2.43 billion + June to date: $2.23 billion). Over the same period, BlackRock’s IBIT net assets dropped from roughly $60.7 billion to $44.4 billion, a $16.3 billion reduction. While ETF outflows don’t equate directly to "shifting to AI," the timing aligns closely—Q2 2026 ETF redemptions and inflows to AI-related assets match up in pace.
Dimension Two: Bernstein’s Aggregate Estimate. Bernstein reports that in 2026, Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs together attracted about $12 billion in inflows, a sharp drop from $60 billion in 2025. Of the roughly $48 billion in reduced incremental capital, a substantial portion is believed to have shifted to AI-related assets.
Dimension Three: AI Financing’s "Crowding Out Effect." Over $200 billion in AI-related bond issuance and more than $1 trillion in cumulative capital expenditures are absorbing significant global risk asset liquidity. HTX Research notes that from late 2024 to mid-2026, a large share of new dollar liquidity has been absorbed by the AI value chain: equity investors buying AI assets, bond investors purchasing AI credit assets, private equity funds financing data centers, and banks/non-bank institutions lending to tech giants and data center projects.
Combining these dimensions, a reasonable estimate is that $40–80 billion in institutional capital shifted from crypto asset allocation to AI infrastructure-related assets between 2025 and 2026. This estimate is cross-validated by ETF outflow data (about $10 billion), incremental capital reduction (about $48 billion), and macro-level crowding out from AI financing (hundreds of billions). It’s important to note, however, that this estimate carries significant uncertainty—capital flows aren’t a zero-sum game. Some funds may come from new liquidity rather than existing allocations, and crypto’s own cyclical factors are also at play.
Industry Leaders’ Consensus Views
This capital migration trend has been confirmed by several key industry figures.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated in a June 2026 interview that the sharp crypto market decline in the first half of 2026 had no single cause. Geopolitical tensions, investors shifting capital to AI, and the typical four-year crypto cycle all contributed to the sustained drop in Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bitcoin fell about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. CZ also noted that emerging sectors like AI are absorbing "hot money" from crypto, but in the long run, this may be positive.
BlackRock Digital Assets Head Robbie Mitchnick was even more direct. He said AI-related assets continue to draw market capital and attention, with massive capital flows into AI themes since 2025. In 2026, AI stocks have outperformed Bitcoin. Mitchnick believes the market is now focused on assets that directly participate in AI infrastructure, computing power, and application development, while assets less connected to AI face stricter capital selection.
Bernstein analysts attribute the slowdown primarily to retail investors chasing AI-related opportunities. These perspectives—from exchange founders, executives at the world’s largest asset managers, and top Wall Street research firms—are highly aligned.
The Four-Year Cycle Still Matters
Capital migration isn’t the only source of pressure on the crypto market. Galaxy Research finds that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact, though the impact of the "halving rule" is waning. Historical analogs suggest the current correction’s base-case bottom lies between $40,000 and $46,000, likely occurring between now and Q4 2026.
This means the 2026 market downturn is a combined effect of "natural cyclical decline" and "AI capital siphoning." Even without AI’s influence, Bitcoin would face cyclical correction pressure in the 12–18 months following its April 2024 halving. The rise of AI adds an extra layer of liquidity withdrawal atop the existing cycle.
The Decoupling of BTC and Nasdaq Correlation
A notable side effect is the dramatic shift in Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq. In April 2026, the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high of 0.96. By early June, it had dropped to nearly zero. This near-total decoupling happened in less than two months.
This break signals a deeper structural change: Bitcoin is moving away from the "tech stock beta" narrative, but its new pricing anchor has yet to be established. As momentum traders shift their focus from crypto to AI and semiconductor sectors, Bitcoin has lost its linkage to Nasdaq and hasn’t built an independent upward logic. This "narrative vacuum" may have longer-term implications than a simple price decline.
Conclusion
Synthesizing the above analysis, several clear conclusions emerge:
First, capital is indeed flowing from the crypto market to AI infrastructure, and this shift is both real and quantifiable. The estimated scale is in the tens of billions, enough to significantly impact crypto’s marginal pricing.
Second, this migration isn’t just a narrative rotation—it’s structurally anchored at the industry level. AI is undergoing a capital expenditure frenzy reminiscent of the dot-com bubble era, while crypto is naturally declining in its four-year cycle. The timing overlap amplifies crypto’s downside.
Third, the sustainability of this trend depends on the return on AI capital expenditures. BIS warned in its June 2026 report that if AI investment returns fall short, rapid tightening of financing could follow. If signs of an AI bubble emerge, capital may flow back to crypto—but this will take time, and the prerequisite is that crypto can offer a more attractive risk-reward profile than it does today.
For market participants, understanding the structural shifts in capital flows is more valuable than simply tracking price levels. As trillion-dollar capital expenditures reshape the global risk asset allocation landscape, crypto assets must find new footing in both narrative and fundamentals.
FAQ
Q1: What are the core reasons behind the drop in Bitcoin price in 2026?
Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, driven by multiple factors: massive institutional capital moving to AI-related assets, the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish rate stance (June FOMC kept rates at 3.50–3.75%), 13 consecutive days of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling $4.33 billion, and the crypto market’s own four-year cyclical decline.
Q2: How much capital has AI actually "siphoned" from the crypto market?
While there’s no precise official statistic, based on ETF outflow data (May–June: about $4.66 billion), Bernstein’s estimated reduction in incremental capital ($48 billion), and the macro-level crowding out effect of AI’s trillion-dollar capital expenditures, a reasonable estimate is $40–80 billion. This estimate carries significant uncertainty, but the directional trend is clear.
Q3: Does the Bitcoin four-year cycle still hold in 2026?
Galaxy Research indicates the four-year cycle remains intact, though the marginal impact of the "halving rule" is diminishing. The base-case bottom for the current correction is expected between $40,000 and $46,000, likely in Q4 2026. AI-driven capital migration adds an extra layer of downward pressure atop the existing cycle.
Q4: Why did Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq drop from 0.96 to nearly zero?
In April 2026, the correlation coefficient hit a historic peak of 0.96, but by early June, it had fallen to nearly zero. The main reason is momentum traders shifting focus from crypto to AI and semiconductor sectors. Bitcoin lost its "tech stock beta" linkage, and its new pricing anchor has yet to be established.
Q5: Is the long-term impact of AI capital migration on the crypto industry positive or negative?
CZ believes AI siphoning "hot money" is positive in the long run—it forces the crypto industry to move away from reliance on speculative liquidity and focus on building stronger fundamentals. In the short term, however, crypto assets must find new footing in both narrative and fundamentals to regain institutional capital interest.
