2026 MP Price Prediction: Expert Analysis and Market Outlook for Next-Generation Computing Power

Introduction: MP's Market Position and Investment Value

MerlinSwap (MP) serves as the leading decentralized exchange in the Bitcoin ecosystem, aimed at becoming the liquidity hub for BTC and Bitcoin eco-assets across Bitcoin Layer 2 networks. Since its launch in 2024, the project has established itself within the Bitcoin DeFi landscape. As of 2026, MP maintains a market capitalization of approximately $508,410, with a circulating supply of around 3.15 billion tokens, and the price remains at $0.0001614. This asset, positioned as a key infrastructure component for Bitcoin Layer 2 liquidity, is playing an increasingly important role in facilitating decentralized trading and liquidity provision within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

This article will comprehensively analyze MP's price trends from 2026 to 2031, combining historical patterns, market supply and demand dynamics, ecosystem development, and macroeconomic conditions to provide investors with professional price forecasts and practical investment strategies.

I. MP Price History Review and Market Status

MP Historical Price Evolution Trajectory

• 2024: MP launched on Gate.com in March with an initial offering price of $0.001, reaching a notable peak of $0.009488 in April 2024, representing a significant appreciation during its early trading period
• 2024-2025: Following the April 2024 peak, MP experienced a substantial correction phase, with price declining considerably as market conditions evolved
• 2026: The token entered a continued downward trend, reaching a recorded low of $0.0001588 on February 5, 2026, reflecting ongoing challenges in market momentum

MP Current Market Status

As of February 5, 2026, MP is trading at $0.0001614, showing recent price pressure with a 2.04% decline over the past hour and a 5.12% decrease in the last 24 hours. The weekly performance indicates a 13.53% drop, while the monthly trend shows a 25.52% decline. Over the past year, the token has experienced a 60.16% decrease from previous levels.

The 24-hour trading range spans from $0.0001609 to $0.00017, with total trading volume reaching $23,371.49. MP's current market capitalization stands at approximately $508,410, with 3.15 billion tokens in circulation, representing 15% of the maximum supply of 21 billion tokens. The fully diluted market cap is calculated at $3,389,400.

MerlinSwap positions itself as a decentralized exchange within the Bitcoin ecosystem, focusing on providing liquidity infrastructure for BTC and Bitcoin ecosystem assets across Bitcoin Layer 2 networks. The project operates on Merlin Chain and has attracted approximately 66,009 holders. The current market sentiment index registers at 12, indicating an extreme fear sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Click to view current MP market price

MP Market Sentiment Index

2026-02-05 Fear and Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)

Click to view current Fear & Greed Index

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing extreme fear, with the Fear and Greed Index hitting 12 points. This indicates investors are highly pessimistic about market prospects, with significant selling pressure and low investor confidence. Such extreme fear conditions often present contrarian buying opportunities for long-term investors, as panic-driven sell-offs may create attractive entry points. However, caution remains warranted as the market may face further downside pressure before stabilizing. Investors should maintain risk management discipline and avoid impulsive decisions driven by emotional reactions to market volatility.

MP Holdings Distribution

The holdings distribution chart illustrates the concentration of MP tokens across different wallet addresses, revealing how tokens are allocated among major holders and smaller participants in the ecosystem. This metric serves as a critical indicator of decentralization level and potential market manipulation risks.

According to the current data, MP exhibits a notably concentrated distribution pattern. The top holder controls approximately 28.88% of the total supply (6,063,750K tokens), while the burn address (0x0000...00dead) accounts for 15.95% of permanently removed tokens. The top five addresses collectively hold 76.82% of the circulating supply, with only 23.18% distributed among other participants. This concentration level suggests a highly centralized token structure that could pose significant risks to market stability.

Such concentrated holdings distribution presents several implications for MP's market dynamics. The dominance of large holders creates potential vulnerabilities to price manipulation, as these major addresses possess sufficient holdings to influence market movements significantly. Additionally, any substantial selling pressure from top holders could trigger cascading effects on token price. From a positive perspective, the 15.95% allocation to the burn address demonstrates a commitment to deflationary tokenomics, which may benefit long-term value preservation.

Click to view current MP Holdings Distribution

II. Core Factors Influencing MP's Future Price

Supply Mechanisms

• Operational Improvements: MP Materials has been rapidly increasing its neodymium-praseodymium oxide production from approximately 1,500 tons annually to nearly 40,000 tons. These operational improvements are beginning to benefit the company's revenue growth and market position.
• Historical Pattern: Past production expansion cycles in the rare earth sector have typically led to price stabilization as supply meets growing demand from technology and defense sectors.
• Current Impact: The ongoing vertical integration into magnet alloy and finished magnet production represents a significant shift in value capture, moving from raw materials to higher-margin products. This downstream expansion is expected to enhance profitability once magnet production begins contributing directly to sales.

Institutional and Major Stakeholder Dynamics

• Institutional Holdings: MP Materials has secured substantial institutional and government support, including multi-billion dollar agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The DoD has invested through preferred stock and committed to long-term procurement of MP's magnets at floor prices, ensuring demand visibility.
• Strategic Partnerships: The company's strategic positioning aligns with the DoD's mission to enhance national security while improving industrial competitiveness, reflecting growing market acceptance of MP's role in establishing domestic magnet supply chains.
• Government Policy: U.S. policy initiatives have intensified focus on rare earth and magnet reshoring. The government has begun establishing partnerships and providing direct support to U.S.-headquartered companies, creating a favorable policy environment for domestic rare earth production.

Macroeconomic Environment

• Geopolitical Factors: Since China currently dominates most global rare earth production and processing, any trade restrictions or export limitations could significantly impact the global electronics ecosystem. This geopolitical dynamic creates strategic value for Western rare earth suppliers like MP Materials.
• Supply Chain Security: The U.S. strategic shift toward rare earth reshoring reflects broader efforts to reduce dependence on imported materials, particularly given rare earths' critical role in electrification, automation, and national security applications.
• Market Sentiment: Geopolitical instability, such as temporary easing of trade tensions or changes in Chinese export policies, could adversely affect the short-term impact of U.S. supply chain initiatives, potentially pressuring valuation multiples for scarce assets like MP Materials.

Technical Development and Ecosystem Building

• Vertical Integration Strategy: MP Materials is developing downstream capabilities by launching magnet alloy and finished magnet production facilities. This vertical integration is essential for generating sustainable industrial profits from rare earth supply potential.
• Production Capacity Expansion: The company continues to accumulate significant capital through ongoing development of its refining and magnet production facilities. While these operations remain capital-intensive, profitability is expected to materialize as production scales.
• Analyst Recognition: Morgan Stanley recently upgraded MP Materials from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight" due to the company's strategic position in the U.S. supply chain and strong year-to-date performance, also raising the company's price target. Market momentum, particularly increased attention on critical minerals, has periodically driven the entire sector higher, including MP and other rare earth stocks.

III. 2026-2031 MP Price Forecast

2026 Outlook

• Conservative prediction: $0.00013 - $0.00016
• Neutral prediction: $0.00016 (average market conditions)
• Optimistic prediction: $0.00019 (requires favorable market sentiment and increased adoption)

Based on current market analysis, 2026 may present a slight contraction compared to previous periods, with the price change indicating a -1% movement. Investors should approach this period with measured expectations as the token establishes its market position.

2027-2029 Mid-term Outlook

• Market stage expectation: Recovery and gradual growth phase with increasing momentum
• Price range predictions:
  • 2027: $0.00009 - $0.0002 (8% price change)
  • 2028: $0.00014 - $0.00022 (16% price change)
  • 2029: $0.00018 - $0.00022 (24% price change)
• Key catalysts: Progressive market adoption, potential technological developments, and broader ecosystem expansion could serve as primary drivers for price appreciation during this period.

The mid-term forecast suggests a strengthening trend with consistent year-over-year growth, indicating potential market maturation and enhanced utility recognition.

2030-2031 Long-term Outlook

• Baseline scenario: $0.00014 - $0.00023 (assuming stable market conditions and continued project development)
• Optimistic scenario: $0.00021 - $0.00024 (assuming accelerated adoption and favorable regulatory environment)
• Transformative scenario: Potential to reach upper ranges if breakthrough developments or significant partnerships materialize
• 2026-02-05: MP trading within early-year ranges as market participants assess long-term value proposition

The extended forecast through 2031 projects a cumulative growth trajectory of approximately 35% from 2026 baseline, suggesting gradual but consistent value appreciation. These projections assume continued project viability and evolving market dynamics within the cryptocurrency sector.

IV. MP Professional Investment Strategy and Risk Management

MP Investment Methodology

(1) Long-term Holding Strategy

• Suitable for: Crypto enthusiasts interested in Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem development and decentralized exchange infrastructure
• Operational Recommendations:
  • Consider accumulating MP during market downturns when the token trades near historical low levels
  • Monitor MerlinSwap's development progress and ecosystem expansion on Merlin Chain
  • Utilize Gate Web3 Wallet for secure long-term storage with private key control

(2) Active Trading Strategy

• Technical Analysis Tools:
  • Volume Analysis: Monitor the current 24-hour trading volume of approximately $23,371 to identify liquidity trends and potential breakout points
  • Support and Resistance Levels: Track the 24-hour low of $0.0001609 as potential support and the 24-hour high of $0.00017 as resistance
• Swing Trading Key Points:
  • Given the high volatility (-5.12% in 24H, -13.53% in 7D), consider short-term positions with tight stop-losses
  • Pay attention to market sentiment shifts in the broader Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem that may impact MP price movements

MP Risk Management Framework

(1) Asset Allocation Principles

• Conservative Investors: 1-2% of crypto portfolio allocation
• Aggressive Investors: 3-5% of crypto portfolio allocation
• Professional Investors: Up to 5-8% with active monitoring and hedging strategies

(2) Risk Hedging Solutions

• Portfolio Diversification: Combine MP holdings with other Bitcoin Layer 2 assets and established cryptocurrencies to reduce concentration risk
• Position Sizing: Given the low circulating supply ratio (15% of total supply), limit exposure to avoid liquidity constraints during market stress

(3) Secure Storage Solutions

• Hot Wallet Recommendation: Gate Web3 Wallet for active trading and quick access to decentralized exchange features
• Cold Storage Solution: Consider hardware wallet solutions for long-term holdings exceeding your active trading allocation
• Security Precautions: Never share private keys, enable two-factor authentication, verify contract addresses (0xbd40c74cb5cf9f9252B3298230Cb916d80430bBa on Merlin Chain) before transactions, and beware of phishing attempts targeting DeFi users

V. MP Potential Risks and Challenges

MP Market Risks

• High Volatility: MP has experienced a -60.16% decline over the past year, demonstrating potential for sharp price fluctuations
• Low Liquidity: With a market cap of approximately $508,410 and daily trading volume of $23,371, liquidity constraints may result in significant slippage during larger transactions
• Market Concentration: Only 15% of total supply is in circulation, which could lead to price manipulation risks or sudden supply shocks if additional tokens enter the market

MP Regulatory Risks

• DeFi Regulatory Uncertainty: As decentralized exchanges face evolving regulatory scrutiny globally, changes in compliance requirements could impact MerlinSwap's operations
• Cross-border Trading Restrictions: Potential regulatory actions targeting Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions or DEX platforms may affect accessibility in certain jurisdictions
• Smart Contract Compliance: Future regulations may impose additional requirements on DeFi protocols, potentially affecting operational flexibility

MP Technical Risks

• Smart Contract Vulnerabilities: As with any DeFi protocol, potential bugs or exploits in MerlinSwap's smart contracts could result in loss of funds
• Layer 2 Infrastructure Dependencies: MP's value proposition relies on Merlin Chain's continued operation and security
• Competition Risk: The Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem is rapidly evolving, with multiple DEX platforms competing for liquidity and user adoption

VI. Conclusion and Action Recommendations

MP Investment Value Assessment

MP represents an early-stage opportunity in the Bitcoin Layer 2 DeFi ecosystem through MerlinSwap's position as a liquidity hub. The project's focus on BTC and Bitcoin eco-assets trading addresses a growing need in the expanding Bitcoin Layer 2 space. However, investors should note the substantial risks reflected in the token's -60.16% yearly decline and relatively low market capitalization of $508,410. The limited circulating supply (15% of total) presents both opportunity for price appreciation and risk of supply-side shocks. While MerlinSwap's infrastructure role in the Bitcoin ecosystem offers long-term potential, short-term volatility and liquidity constraints require careful position sizing and risk management.

MP Investment Recommendations

✅ Beginners: Start with minimal allocation (0.5-1% of crypto portfolio) to gain exposure while limiting downside risk. Focus on understanding DeFi mechanics and Bitcoin Layer 2 developments before increasing position size. Consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risk.

✅ Experienced Investors: Allocate 2-4% of crypto portfolio with active monitoring of ecosystem developments. Utilize technical analysis for entry and exit points, and consider participating in MerlinSwap's liquidity provision if comfortable with DeFi protocols and impermanent loss risks.

✅ Institutional Investors: Conduct thorough due diligence on smart contract audits and team background before allocation. Consider strategic position sizing (3-5%) with hedging strategies through correlated assets. Evaluate MerlinSwap's competitive positioning within the Bitcoin Layer 2 landscape and establish clear risk parameters.

MP Trading Participation Methods

• Spot Trading: Purchase MP directly on Gate.com with competitive fees and liquidity access
• DeFi Participation: Interact with MerlinSwap protocol directly for trading and potential liquidity provision on Merlin Chain
• Strategic Accumulation: Implement systematic purchase plans during market dips to build positions gradually while managing average entry price

Cryptocurrency investment carries extremely high risks, and this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance, and it is recommended to consult professional financial advisors. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

FAQ

MP Price Prediction - What does it mean and how to predict prices?

MP price prediction analyzes market trends, trading volume, and historical data to forecast future price movements. Use technical analysis, chart patterns, and market indicators to identify potential price directions and trading opportunities.

What are the main factors affecting MP price?

MP price is primarily influenced by defense demand, local monopoly factors, and macroeconomic cycles. Market trading volume, investor sentiment, and overall crypto market conditions also play significant roles in price movements.

What are the common analysis methods or tools for MP price prediction?

Common MP price prediction methods include moving averages（5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200-day periods）and technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and CCI. These tools help assess market trends, trading volume, and buy/sell signals for accurate forecasting.

How accurate is MP price prediction, and what are the risks and limitations?

MP price prediction accuracy is limited due to high market volatility and unpredictable factors. Main risks include significant price fluctuations, lack of analyst consensus targets, and potential substantial losses. Market conditions and external events can rapidly change price trajectories, making precise predictions challenging.

How to make investment decisions based on MP price predictions?

Analyze MP price prediction data using technical indicators and market trends. Monitor price movement patterns（up, stable, down）, assess probability distributions of price states, and combine with trading volume analysis to identify optimal entry and exit points for informed investment decisions.