Is it too late to become a crypto millionaire with Bitcoin?｜Is 2025 the optimal time to invest?

What Is an "Okuribito"?

"Okuribito" (億り人) is a Japanese term describing someone whose net worth exceeds ¥100 million through investing or speculating in stocks, FX, or crypto assets. Originally a slang word unique to Japan, it gained traction in investment circles—especially during periods of rapid growth in the crypto market.

The term first became widely recognized during the crypto bubble of 2017. At the time, surging prices in Bitcoin and altcoins allowed individual investors to quickly accumulate over ¥100 million in assets. According to the National Tax Agency, 331 crypto investors nationwide reported annual income exceeding ¥100 million in 2017. This number highlights the significant wealth-building opportunities crypto investing has provided.

Today, "Okuribito" represents more than just reaching an asset milestone—it’s a symbol of financial freedom and success achieved through strategic risk-taking. But it’s essential to remember that many investors have also suffered losses or failed along the way.

Can Ordinary People Still Become Okuribito?

In short, "It’s not too late to start now." That doesn’t mean "buy a little Bitcoin and you’ll automatically become a millionaire." While today’s market conditions and price levels differ from the past, strategic planning and a long-term approach still provide opportunities for asset growth.

For example, with Bitcoin trading around ¥14 million, holding 1 BTC could make you an Okuribito if the price increases sevenfold (about ¥100 million). However, for most people, "1 BTC = ¥14 million" is an unrealistic investment. That’s why investment strategy and financial planning are essential.

Key questions to consider:

• How much should you invest, over what period, and by what method?
• If you can only invest tens or hundreds of thousands of yen, what growth scenarios are possible?

For example, consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA):

• Investing ¥30,000 monthly in Bitcoin yields ¥360,000 after one year and ¥3.6 million after ten years.
• If Bitcoin’s annual average yield (40–60%) is even partially replicated, your investment could grow four to tenfold in ten years (e.g., ¥3.6 million → ¥15–30 million).

While this may not reach ¥100 million, building assets of several million yen is achievable. Alternatively, buying 0.1 BTC (about ¥1.4 million) and holding until it increases tenfold would reach a valuation of ¥14 million. Combined with diversification, these targets are realistic for a "satellite asset strategy."

Importantly, the investment environment has greatly improved in recent years:

• Exchanges now support easy DCA and recurring purchases.
• Japanese regulations have strengthened, improving market safety.
• With ETF approvals, capital is flowing from retail investors to institutions.

This means retail investors can act first, with institutional money providing support later. Institutional adoption could further stabilize markets and support long-term price growth.

Risks remain, of course. Price drops of over 50% are not uncommon, and taxes are still high. Even so, Bitcoin has a track record of delivering results as a "long-term investment." Historical data shows investors who held for four years or longer have never incurred a loss.

Although Bitcoin is trading at high levels, it may present a new starting point for those who ‘missed out’. The key is to invest patiently, manage risk, and stick to your own pace.

Realistic Okuribito Scenarios by Investment Amount

*Assumptions: $1 = ¥140, 1 BTC = $100,000 (about ¥14 million)

Even if you’ve heard "Bitcoin isn’t too late," many investors struggle to determine how much to invest to realistically aim for Okuribito status. Here’s a breakdown of scenarios by investment amount, estimating asset values if prices increase five to fifteen times—helping you set practical goals.

A Practical Roadmap for Retail Investors

The table shows how dramatically your goals shift depending on investment amount. Here’s a closer look at realistic strategies and expectations for each category:

• Less than ¥100,000 is best viewed as a "ticket to the future." At this level, the experience of participating is more valuable than immediate returns. Use this period to study crypto markets and prepare for more serious investing.
• Around ¥1,000,000 puts Okuribito status out of reach, but could yield several times your money over ten years. It’s ideal as a source of extra income and an entry point to learn. At this size, it’s psychologically manageable and suited for long-term holding practice.
• Around ¥10,000,000 makes Okuribito status truly attainable—but never invest essential living funds. Always use surplus money and treat this as part of a diversified strategy.
• Even a monthly DCA of ¥30,000, continued long-term, can build assets of ¥50 million or more. For beginners, this is the easiest and least stressful path. By automating your purchases, you can smooth out your average cost and stay emotionally detached from price swings.

1. Is Okuribito Status Impossible With ¥100,000?

At current prices (1 BTC = $100,000 ≈ ¥14 million), ¥100,000 buys only about 0.007 BTC. Even if Bitcoin rises tenfold ($1 million), your holdings would be worth just ¥1,000,000.

▶ Realistically, this investment is more about "experiencing price gains" or "getting used to holding Bitcoin." Still, small investments serve as valuable learning opportunities, helping you build resilience to price volatility and understand market psychology.

2. How Far Can ¥1,000,000 Get You?

With ¥1,000,000, you can buy roughly 0.071 BTC. If Bitcoin reaches $1 million (about ¥140 million), your holdings could be worth around ¥10 million.

▶ While Okuribito status remains out of reach, you could aim for several-fold to tenfold growth over time. Combining DCA with diversification makes asset-building realistic at this level. It’s easy to include in your portfolio, manage risk, and take profits gradually as the market grows.

3. What If You Invest ¥10,000,000 At Once?

You’ll get about 0.71 BTC, so if Bitcoin exceeds $700,000, your assets will reach ¥100 million.

▶ The hurdle is high, but if you believe Bitcoin will hit ARK Invest’s 2030 target ($500,000–$2,400,000), this is the "fastest route to Okuribito." Don't go all-in, though—diversify and consult on tax matters. For most people, ¥10,000,000 is a substantial sum; consider spreading investments out over time (DCA) and make sure your tax reporting is in order.

4. What If You DCA ¥30,000 Monthly for 10 Years?

Dollar-cost averaging is favored by both beginners and pros:

• Total investment: ¥3.6 million (¥30,000 × 12 × 10)
• Assumed average purchase price: $200,000/BTC (≈ ¥2.8 million)
• If Bitcoin hits $1 million (≈ ¥140 million), your assets could grow to ¥18 million

▶ By holding for ten years within manageable limits, building assets exceeding ¥10 million is realistic. DCA is especially effective for beginners, helping you stay consistent and avoid overreacting to price swings. Psychological benefits include:

• Reduces the risk of buying at a peak
• Encourages a positive mindset during price drops ("buying opportunities")
• Makes it easier to form an investing habit for long-term success
• Less stress than lump-sum investing

This strategy is ideal for newcomers and anyone uneasy about investing a large sum all at once.

Major Bitcoin Price Outlooks (2025 and Beyond)

Major financial institutions and investors are bullish on Bitcoin’s future, especially over the next few years. Their forecasts cite market maturity, institutional involvement, and regulatory progress as key factors.

Key Institutional and Expert Forecasts

The table below summarizes Bitcoin price predictions from leading institutions and analysts. While estimates vary, most expect prices to rise several times above current levels.

Forecast Drivers and Common Themes

These forecasts share several key drivers:

• Institutional adoption and ETF growth are primary catalysts, especially in the US, where spot ETF approval has opened the door to massive institutional inflows.
• Inflation and financial instability are fueling demand for Bitcoin as "digital gold", particularly in emerging markets and regions with political or economic uncertainty.
• Supply tightening and large-scale accumulation by whales are reducing available supply. Bitcoin’s halving cycles decrease new issuance even as demand grows.
• Long-term demand expansion is expected, especially in Latin America and Africa.

Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against US Treasuries and traditional finance (TradFi) risks. Jeff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, says:

Bitcoin is a hedge against both TradFi and US Treasury risks. Its main portfolio role is to offset risks from the traditional system, thanks to its decentralized ledger.

This shows Bitcoin is now seen as a portfolio diversifier, not just a speculative asset.

Potential Impact if Realized

Many experts highlight "2–5x growth in the next few years" and "even higher over the long term." Holding 1 BTC now makes Okuribito status increasingly attainable—but these are possibilities, not certainties.

Key drivers going forward include ETF approvals and macroeconomic shifts. Watch for:

• Regulatory changes (especially in the US, EU, Japan)
• Central bank policies (rate hikes/cuts)
• Institutional investor sentiment
• Technical advances (scalability, etc.)
• Geopolitical risks (conflicts, sanctions)

Investors should monitor these factors and adjust strategies as needed.

Long-Term Holding Strategy: Historic Returns and Outlook

To achieve Okuribito status, long-term holding (HODL) has consistently outperformed short-term trading. HODL stands for "Hold On for Dear Life," and is widely used in the crypto community.

Historical Performance

Long-term holding has proven to be a powerful Bitcoin investment strategy:

• Bitcoin Outperforms All Other Assets

Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s average annual return was about 155%. Gold returned roughly 7% and the S&P 500 about 10%—far behind Bitcoin.

Over ten years, Bitcoin averaged 49% annual returns, beating major stock indices. Since launch, it’s risen tens of thousands of percent, earning its reputation as the "best investment in history." The famous story of pizza bought with 10,000 BTC (then worth about ¥3,000, now worth billions) highlights this growth.

• No Four-Year Holding Period Has Ever Lost Money

Despite volatility, every four-year period has produced positive returns. For example:

• Buying at the 2017 peak (~$20,000), even after a crash, would have doubled your money (+133%) by the end of 2021.
• Buying at the 2013 peak ($1,242) would have grown eightfold (+694%) by 2017.

Even after major crashes, holding long enough has always yielded gains. This is reassuring for anyone worried about "buying at the top."

• Past Performance Doesn’t Guarantee the Future

For over a decade, long-term holding has consistently worked, though past results don’t guarantee the future.

Experts note that "a four-year holding mindset is essential"—matching Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle.

Analyst Willy Woo predicts Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will stabilize around 8% as the market matures.

Woo points out, "Bitcoin’s annual returns, which exceeded 100% in 2017, fell to 30–40% after 2020" as institutions began accumulating. He adds:

People think BTC is a magical unicorn that will always moon. Here’s the actual CAGR chart—we’re well past the 100%+ growth years of 2017.

Woo expects Bitcoin’s CAGR to eventually settle around 8% over the next 15–20 years, in line with long-term currency and GDP growth rates.

Still, he emphasizes, “Even at a lower CAGR, Bitcoin will outperform most public assets.” At 8% compounded annually, assets double in ten years—a compelling investment case.

High-Risk Shortcuts: The Perils of Leverage and Futures Trading

Many investors are tempted to multiply their assets quickly with leverage or futures trading. But these strategies are extremely risky and can wipe out your capital in an instant.

Leverage trading lets you use your funds as collateral for trades worth several times more—sometimes even dozens of times. For example, with 10x leverage, ¥1,000,000 can control ¥10,000,000. Profits are multiplied, but so are losses.

While leverage allows for large trades with small amounts, if the market moves against you, losses can balloon rapidly. At 10x leverage, a 10% move can wipe out your entire position (forced liquidation). With Bitcoin’s volatility, daily swings over 10% are common.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns:

Never use more than 2x leverage. Seriously, don’t do it. I’ve never seen anyone succeed long-term while recommending high leverage.

This advice is based on years of market observation. While some traders may see short-term gains, most ultimately suffer major losses.

“High risk, high return” carries the risk of total loss. Even skilled traders struggle in crypto’s volatile environment. Chasing Okuribito status with leverage is more likely to lead to losses than success.

Beginners should especially avoid leverage because:

• They tend to act on emotion
• They often misjudge liquidation timing
• They struggle to react to sharp market moves
• They dig themselves deeper trying to recover losses

For long-term wealth building, avoid leverage and stick to spot investing and holding.

Rising Number of Long-Term Bitcoin Holders: Causes and Impact

Recently, the number of long-term Bitcoin holders (HODLers) has increased, reflecting market maturity and changing investor psychology. Key reasons include:

• Recent milestones—like the first US spot Bitcoin ETF approval, the fourth halving, the US election, and shifts in monetary policy—have fueled bullish sentiment. ETF approval is especially significant, making institutional participation easier.

• Institutional inflows have accelerated, with Bitcoin increasingly used as an inflation hedge and “digital gold” for long-term holding. More institutions and corporate treasuries now hold Bitcoin, supporting prices.

• In Japan, Bitcoin was legalized in 2017 and exchange infrastructure improved. Individual investors now enjoy a safer environment, leading to more long-term, buy-and-hold investing.

On-chain data shows that, by the end of 2023, most Bitcoin supply was held by long-term investors. Long-term holders (LTH) controlled 14.37 million BTC—over 70% of total supply. Long-term accumulation has outweighed short-term selling, helping stabilize the market.

This trend brings several market benefits:

• Reduced supply stabilizes prices
• Short-term volatility has less impact
• Greater market maturity
• Less speculative activity

Expectations for monetary easing, Bitcoin’s scarcity, and regulatory progress have encouraged more investors to hold. The US Treasury Department commented:

Bitcoin’s main use is as a store of value—essentially ‘digital gold’ in the DeFi world.

This shows Bitcoin is now central to value storage in DeFi, moving beyond payments to become an asset protection vehicle.

A Realistic Path to Okuribito Status With Bitcoin

Based on this analysis, here are practical strategies for aiming at Okuribito status. The key is to tailor your plan to your financial capacity and risk tolerance.

What Does It Take to Reach “¥100 Million” From Today’s Prices?

With Bitcoin around ¥14 million, you’d need the price to increase over sevenfold to reach ¥100 million. If ARK Invest’s 2030 target of $700,000 is realized, holding 1 BTC would make you an Okuribito. With 0.5 BTC, you’d need the price to reach roughly $1.4 million.

This calculation shows that holding a substantial amount of Bitcoin makes Okuribito status feasible if bullish forecasts are realized—but it requires investments ranging from several million to ¥10 million.

Expert Forecast Ranges

Most expert predictions for the next few years ($150,000–$250,000) fall short of Okuribito status. But several analysts foresee prices above $1 million over the long term, meaning even smaller holdings could still get you there.

Remember, these forecasts represent possibilities—not guarantees. Make investment decisions based on multiple sources, but always at your own risk.

Market Maturity and Investment Value

While explosive rallies are less likely, market maturity has brought greater stability and reliability. Bitcoin retains strong growth potential over traditional assets, and long-term holding remains a compelling strategy.

Benefits of market maturity include:

• Greater price stability
• Higher liquidity from institutional involvement
• Improved safety through stronger regulations
• Better infrastructure (exchanges, custody services, etc.)

Bitcoin continues to transition from a speculative play to a bona fide investment asset.

Practical Strategies for Retail Investors

Effective approaches by investment amount:

Investing under ¥100,000 offers mainly experience and a way to learn the crypto market. Actual ownership builds resilience to volatility and helps you understand market dynamics.

Around ¥1,000,000 can yield several-fold to tenfold returns over time, functioning as extra income and a manageable portfolio allocation.

Only with investments near ¥10,000,000 does Okuribito status become realistic—never invest money needed for living expenses or emergencies, as this leads to stress and poor decisions.

The most practical approach for most is to DCA ¥30,000 per month for ten years, keeping psychological stress low and allowing for asset growth in the millions. This method supports long-term investing and helps you weather market swings calmly.

Disciplined Long-Term Holding: The Proven Path

Bitcoin has historically delivered positive returns over four-year holding periods, demonstrating the effectiveness of long-term investing.

Short-term, high-risk tactics (leverage, futures) carry major risks and should be avoided. Experts recommend "long-term holding with confidence in Bitcoin’s future—not chasing a quick windfall" as the practical route to Okuribito status.

Successful investors share these traits:

• Invest according to a plan, not emotions
• Don’t react to short-term price swings
• Practice strict risk management (diversification, using surplus funds)
• Continue learning and adapt to market changes
• Stay on top of tax obligations

Following these principles is essential for building lasting wealth.

Conclusion: It’s Not Too Late to Aim for Okuribito With Bitcoin—But Long-Term Strategy Is Crucial

Bitcoin remains at high levels, but Okuribito status is still attainable. While the era of explosive gains has passed, expert predictions, market maturity, and regulatory tailwinds (such as ETF approvals) mean there’s still plenty of upside for building wealth.

Success requires calm judgment, a long-term perspective, and investing at levels suited to your style. ¥100,000 can be your "seed" for the future; ¥1–10 million enables realistic growth strategies; and monthly accumulation allows you to build wealth without undue stress.

The focus should be not on "how much you can gain," but "how much you can invest comfortably and sustainably." Be patient and avoid greed—use time and diversification to your advantage and start your journey now. This is the most realistic starting line to Okuribito status.

Finally, remember that investing is your responsibility. Consider expert forecasts, but make decisions you can accept and invest only within your comfort zone. Bitcoin’s future is uncertain, but with sound risk management and a long-term view, it remains a powerful tool for building wealth.

FAQ

How high could Bitcoin go in 2025? Is it still profitable to buy now?

Bitcoin is projected to trade in the $102,843–$159,350 range in 2025. Buying now still offers solid profit potential. Institutional adoption and supply scarcity continue to support further price increases.

Is it too late to become Okuribito with Bitcoin? Is 2025 a good time to buy?

Bitcoin is expected to keep rising. Early investors have seen significant gains, and new entrants can still build substantial assets. The bullish market trend looks set to continue.

What changed for Bitcoin in 2024, and where are the investment opportunities for 2025?

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin entered a major bullish phase in 2025. The Fed’s rate-cut cycle and global capital shifts present new investment opportunities and drive prices higher.

How should beginners start investing in Bitcoin? How much should they invest?

Start small—regular investments of around $100 per week are effective. There’s no need to commit a large lump sum. Long-term holding is the key to success.

What are the main risks of Bitcoin investing? How can they be managed?

Major risks include price volatility and security. To manage them, diversify your portfolio and use secure wallets. Long-term holding also helps mitigate risk.

Which is the best investment for 2025—Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto assets?

Bitcoin remains the most reliable choice. Ethereum stands out for its smart contract features, and layer-2 solutions like Solana offer strong growth prospects. Diversifying your portfolio is recommended.

Is a regular Bitcoin investment plan (DCA) practical in 2025?

DCA remains highly practical for 2025. With $250 weekly investments, you could accumulate 1 Bitcoin within ten years. This is an effective long-term strategy, especially in a volatile market.