Is It Too Late to Become a Bitcoin Millionaire? | Strategies for Timing Your Investment Decisions

What Is an "Okuribito"?

"Okuribito" is a uniquely Japanese term describing someone whose net worth surpasses ¥100 million through investment or trading in stocks, FX, or crypto assets. The phrase became widely known during the 2017 crypto boom, when rapid surges in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies enabled many investors to amass fortunes from relatively modest investments in a short period—drawing major media coverage.

While "Okuribito" often conjures images of speculative windfalls, many who reach this status do so through disciplined, long-term investing. In asset classes with strong growth potential—such as Bitcoin—proper risk management and a long-term approach can enable even everyday investors to build significant wealth, making "Okuribito" a symbol of this possibility.

Can Ordinary People Still Strive to Become "Okuribito" by Entering the Market Now?

Simply put, "it’s not too late to start now." This doesn’t mean that buying a small amount of BTC will automatically make you a millionaire. While the days of explosive 10x or 100x growth are behind us, there are still plenty of opportunities to substantially grow your assets—provided you have the right strategy and time horizon.

The key is to clarify exactly "how much to invest, over what period, and how to hold." For instance:

• If you invest ¥30,000 in Bitcoin monthly, you’ll have invested ¥360,000 in one year and ¥3,600,000 over ten years.
• If Bitcoin’s historical average annual returns of 40–60% repeat to some degree, your investment could grow by 4–10x over ten years.
• Even as market volatility decreases, crypto assets still offer returns far beyond traditional financial products.

The most important approach is to stick with a long-term plan and not react emotionally to short-term price swings. To aim for "Okuribito," you need to set appropriate investment amounts, leverage time diversification (dollar-cost averaging), and—above all—maintain patience and consistency.

Realistic Scenarios for Becoming "Okuribito" Based on Investment Amount

*Assuming recent market conditions: 1 BTC = $100,000 (approx. ¥14 million)

A Realistic Path for Retail Investors

Your investment amount dramatically affects the realistic goals you can pursue with Bitcoin. Here’s a breakdown by investment scale:

• Small Investments (¥100,000 or less): Not practical for reaching "Okuribito," but valuable as a “market entry ticket.” This zone offers tremendous educational value for learning market behavior and gaining experience.
• Investing Around ¥1,000,000: Still far from "Okuribito," but a realistic target for several-fold returns over ten years. Building a ¥10 million portfolio comes into view.
• Investing ¥10 million: At this scale, "Okuribito" becomes a realistic target. If Bitcoin reaches $700,000–$1,000,000, hitting ¥100 million is well within reach.
• ¥30,000 Monthly DCA Over 10 Years: A total investment of ¥3,600,000, with potential to build assets above ¥50 million. This is the most practical and psychologically manageable strategy.

1. Is "Okuribito" Impossible with a ¥100,000 Investment?

At today’s rates (1 BTC ≈ ¥14 million), a ¥100,000 investment buys only about 0.007 BTC. Even if Bitcoin rises tenfold, the value would be about ¥1 million. Even a 100x surge (1 BTC = $10 million ≈ ¥1.4 billion) would only bring your holding to about ¥10 million—still far short of "Okuribito."

Still, investing ¥100,000 is not pointless. As a "market entry ticket," it brings several benefits:

• Experience real price fluctuations and learn market dynamics
• Small investment means low emotional stress, making it easier to stay rational
• Gain experience to guide future investment decisions

Think of a ¥100,000 investment as a practical first step toward more serious investing in the future.

2. How Far Can a ¥1,000,000 Investment Take You?

Invest ¥1,000,000 and you can acquire about 0.071 BTC—ten times more than with ¥100,000, and with much greater return potential.

Possible scenarios include:

• If Bitcoin reaches $500,000 (approx. ¥7 million): value is about ¥5 million
• If Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 (approx. ¥14 million): value is about ¥10 million

Many experts forecast Bitcoin will exceed $1,000,000 in the 2030s. If realized, a ¥1,000,000 investment could generate a tenfold return—around ¥10 million. While not "Okuribito," this is a significant result for asset building.

¥1,000,000 is a balanced amount—low risk, but with the potential for substantial growth.

3. What If You Invest ¥10 Million All at Once?

Investing ¥10 million lets you acquire about 0.71 BTC, making "Okuribito" a realistic goal.

Calculated scenarios:

• If Bitcoin reaches $700,000 (approx. ¥98 million): value is about ¥70 million
• If Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 (approx. ¥140 million): value is about ¥100 million ("Okuribito" achieved!)

Prominent analysts forecast $700,000–$1,000,000 by 2030, and if these scenarios play out, a ¥10 million investment can realistically achieve "Okuribito."

However, ¥10 million is a substantial sum for most people. Risk management is critical:

• Consider buying in multiple tranches instead of all at once
• Keep investment funds separate from living and emergency money
• Commit to long-term holding and avoid reacting to short-term volatility

For those aiming for "Okuribito," a ¥10 million investment is the most practical starting point.

4. Continuing a ¥30,000 Monthly DCA for 10 Years

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the most practical, low-stress strategy for most investors.

Scenario details:

• ¥30,000 × 12 months × 10 years = total investment of ¥3,600,000
• If historical returns (40–60%/year) continue, the value could reach tens of millions of yen after ten years
• If Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000, the valuation could grow to about ¥18 million

DCA’s main strengths:

• Reduces the risk of buying at market peaks (average purchase price is smoothed)
• Most people can easily maintain ¥30,000/month
• Automatically adjusts risk—buy more when prices fall, less when they rise
• Lets you invest consistently without reacting emotionally to price swings

DCA may take longer to reach "Okuribito," but it’s the most reliable method for steady asset accumulation. After ten years, building assets above ¥10 million becomes very realistic.

Major Bitcoin Price Forecasts (2025 and Beyond)

Many leading financial institutions and investors remain bullish on Bitcoin’s future price. Here’s a summary of the main predictions:

Key institutional and investor forecasts:

• Standard Chartered Bank: $200,000 (end of 2025), $500,000 (2028)
• ARK Invest (Cathie Wood): $710,000 (2030), up to $1,500,000 (bullish scenario)
• Fidelity Digital Assets: Potential to reach $1,000,000 long term
• Tim Draper: $250,000 (end of 2025)
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): $500,000 (2030)

While predictions vary, most experts agree that the possibility of Bitcoin reaching several hundred thousand dollars or more is strong. In particular, many cite $1,000,000 as plausible by the 2030s—implying 7–10x upside from current levels.

Common Factors Behind These Forecasts

These bullish outlooks rest on several shared drivers:

1. Institutional Inflows and ETF Adoption

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have opened the door to large-scale institutional investment
• Pension funds and insurers—previously excluded—can now participate
• ETF-based exposure increases accessibility and boosts demand

2. Rising Demand as a Hedge Against Inflation and Financial Instability

• Global monetary easing has diluted fiat currency values
• Bitcoin has secured its role as "digital gold"
• Increasingly recognized alongside gold as an inflation hedge

3. Supply Constraints

• Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million increases scarcity
• Long-term holders and institutions are accumulating, reducing supply in circulation
• Halving events cut new supply, pushing prices up as demand rises

4. Infrastructure and Technological Maturity

• Payment infrastructure such as Lightning Network is advancing
• Security and convenience improvements drive broader adoption
• Clearer regulatory frameworks allow institutions to invest with confidence

These dynamics combine to support expectations for long-term price growth.

Returns from Long-Term Holding: Historical Performance and Future Outlook

Historical Returns

Long-term holding of Bitcoin has produced outstanding returns:

Past five years (2019–2024):

• Bitcoin’s average annual return: about 155%
• Gold: about 7%
• S&P 500: about 10–15%

These results show Bitcoin’s dominance over traditional asset classes.

Past ten years (2014–2024):

• Average annual return: about 49%
• Many investments have multiplied dozens of times over ten years

Most important data: Four years or more of holding always yielded positive returns

Analysis shows that holding Bitcoin for four years or longer always produced positive returns, regardless of purchase timing. For example:

• Even if bought at the 2017 year-end high (approx. ¥2 million), investment doubled to approx. ¥4 million by 2021 year-end
• Even if bought at the 2021 year-end high (approx. ¥7 million), the principal was restored and turned positive in three to four years

This demonstrates that "long-term holding is the most reliable strategy."

Future Prospects: Return Forecasts

Of course, past explosive growth rates won’t necessarily continue. As the market matures, returns are likely to stabilize.

Renowned analyst Willy Woo predicts Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will settle at 8–10%. This is a notable drop from historical rates, but remains attractive:

• Comparable to, or better than, traditional equities (S&P 500 averages about 10%)
• Better than gold’s 7% average
• Far higher than bonds or deposits (1–3%)

Even as the market matures, Bitcoin should remain a leading high-return asset class.

High-Risk Shortcuts: The Dangers of Leverage and Futures Trading

Some investors, hoping to become "Okuribito" quickly, turn to leveraged or futures trading to multiply their assets. These high-risk approaches are extremely dangerous, and can lead to total loss of capital in an instant if not managed carefully.

Risks of Leverage and Futures Trading:

1. Forced Liquidation Risk

   • If prices move against you, your margin may be insufficient and your position forcefully closed
   • Bitcoin can swing 10–20% daily; with leverage, liquidation can occur quickly

2. Losses Beyond Investment Amount

   • With 10x leverage, a 10% adverse move erases your capital
   • Sudden volatility can generate losses greater than your margin

3. Severe Psychological Stress

   • 24/7 price monitoring leads to burnout
   • Poor decisions create a vicious cycle of losses

4. High Fee Burden

   • Leverage trading incurs funding rates
   • Frequent trades erode capital through fees alone

Expert Warning

The CEO of CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics firm, warns: "Never use more than 2x leverage." In reality, many crypto investors suffer major losses from leveraged trading.

The Most Realistic Strategy: Long-Term Holding of Spot Bitcoin

The majority of successful Bitcoin investors built wealth by holding spot assets for the long-term, without leverage. Betting on short-term price moves isn’t reliable—making time your ally is the surest route.

While it’s tempting to rush toward "Okuribito," risky shortcuts often lead to setbacks—or even wipe out your capital entirely. Investors should take this lesson seriously.

Why More People Are Holding Bitcoin Long Term

Long-term Bitcoin holders (HODLers) are increasing, reflecting market maturity and changing investor attitudes.

Key Drivers Behind the Increase in Long-Term Holders:

1. Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval in the US

• In 2024, the SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF
• This made it easy for institutions and individuals to invest in Bitcoin
• ETF investments are fundamentally long-term, supporting market stability

2. Accelerating Institutional Inflows

• Pension funds, insurers, and major asset managers have entered the market
• These institutions hold Bitcoin as part of long-term portfolios
• Companies like MicroStrategy are accumulating Bitcoin as a corporate treasury strategy

3. Regulatory Improvements and Exchange Infrastructure in Japan

• Japan has improved regulations and the investment environment for crypto assets
• Major financial institutions entering the space have enhanced safety and convenience
• Progress in tax policy is making long-term investing easier

4. Market Maturity and Shifting Investor Attitudes

• Investor focus is shifting from chasing windfalls to building assets long term
• Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a legitimate asset class
• More investors are comfortable with volatility and capable of holding for the long-term

On-Chain Data Shows the Extent of Long-Term Holding

On-chain data reveals that, in recent market conditions, long-term holders (LTH; holding 155 days or more) now control 14.37 million BTC—about 72% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

This means:

• The majority of circulating Bitcoin is held by long-term investors
• Short-term trading supply is shrinking, stabilizing prices
• Tighter supply forms the foundation for future price increases

The growth in long-term holders is a key signal that Bitcoin is entering a sustainable phase of market maturity.

A Realistic Roadmap to "Okuribito" with Bitcoin

What Does It Take to Reach ¥100 Million from Today’s Price?

At current prices (1 BTC ≈ ¥14 million, $100,000), reaching ¥100 million requires Bitcoin to rise more than sevenfold. Specifically:

• With 1 BTC at $700,000 (approx. ¥98 million), holding 1 BTC makes you an "Okuribito"
• With 1 BTC at $1,000,000 (approx. ¥140 million), holding 0.71 BTC is enough

If ARK Invest’s 2030 forecast of $710,000 comes true, holding 1 BTC (worth about ¥14 million today) achieves "Okuribito." At $1,000,000, you can reach the goal with less than 1 BTC.

What Are the Expert Forecasts?

Here’s a summary of expert predictions:

Short to Mid-Term (2025–2027):

• Most forecasts are for $150,000–$250,000 (approx. ¥21–¥35 million)
• This falls short of "Okuribito" (with 1 BTC, you’d have about ¥30 million)

Long-Term (2028–2030s):

• Multiple experts forecast $500,000–$1,000,000 (approx. ¥70–¥140 million)
• At this level, 1 BTC is enough to achieve "Okuribito"
• Even with 0.71 BTC (an investment of about ¥10 million), Okuribito is within reach

The key is to maintain a long-term perspective and not be swayed by short-term price changes. Even if the 2025–2027 forecasts are below the target, holding with an eye to the 2030s is critical.

Practical Strategies for Retail Investors

For retail investors aiming for "Okuribito," the most practical approach is:

Recommended Strategy: ¥30,000 Monthly DCA for 10 Years

• Total investment: ¥3,600,000 (¥30,000 × 12 months × 10 years)
• Psychological burden: Most people can maintain ¥30,000/month without strain
• Risk diversification: Time-spread purchases reduce peak price risk
• Expected returns: If Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000, the portfolio could grow to several tens of millions of yen

Main benefits of this strategy:

1. Manageable investment amount
2. Less likely to react to short-term volatility
3. Mechanical approach avoids emotional mistakes
4. Captures market growth over a decade

Supplemental Strategy: Add Investments with Surplus Funds

• Invest bonuses or windfalls as additional capital
• Buy more when prices decline sharply
• Never use living or emergency funds for investment

Strategies to Avoid:

• Leverage and futures trading (high risk)
• Lump-sum investing (high risk of buying at market peaks)
• Short-term trading (high fees, poor tax treatment)

The Core Principle: Rigorous Risk Management and Long-Term Holding

The foundation for building wealth with Bitcoin is disciplined, long-term holding and strict risk management. Key points:

1. Hold for at Least Four Years

• Data shows four years or more of holding always produced positive returns
• Short-term crashes recover over four years, resulting in gains
• Commit to “not selling for four years”

2. Completely Separate Investment from Living Funds

• Only invest money you won’t need for ten years
• Keep living expenses and emergency funds (at least six months’ worth) separate
• Invest only amounts that won’t disrupt your life if lost

3. Avoid Emotional Trading

• Don’t sell immediately after price surges (remember your long-term goal)
• Don’t panic-sell after drops (stick to the four-year rule)
• Continue DCA mechanically and avoid emotional decisions

4. Avoid Leverage Trading

• Leverage carries major risks; stick to spot holdings

5. Regularly Review Your Portfolio

• Check what percentage of your assets are in Bitcoin
• Adjust based on risk tolerance
• Avoid frequent trading based on short-term price moves

By sticking to these principles, you’ll avoid losses from high-risk trades and steadily grow your assets.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently trading near all-time highs, but aiming for "Okuribito" is still possible. While the explosive growth seen in 2017 or 2020 is unlikely to repeat, expert forecasts and greater market maturity suggest there’s still plenty of opportunity to multiply your assets several times—even tenfold—from here.

Key Points to Remember:

1. Your Target Depends on Investment Amount

   • ¥100,000: entry ticket, learning opportunity
   • ¥1,000,000: build a ¥10 million portfolio over ten years
   • ¥10 million: "Okuribito" is within realistic reach
   • ¥30,000/month DCA × 10 years: most practical, reliable strategy

2. Long-Term Holding Is the Most Reliable Strategy

   • Holding for four years or longer has always produced positive returns
   • Risky shortcuts (leverage trading) are usually detours—or wipe out your capital
   • Time is your strongest ally

3. Expert Forecasts Remain Bullish for the Long Term

   • Many expect Bitcoin to reach $500,000–$1,000,000 in the 2030s
   • Even small holdings can deliver significant returns in this scenario

4. Rigorous Risk Management Is Essential

   • Keep investments separate from living expenses
   • Avoid emotional trading
   • Never use leverage

Final Thoughts: Be Patient, Avoid Greed, Make Time Your Ally

The important thing isn’t "how much you can gain," but "how much you’re comfortable investing and sustaining." Whether it’s ¥30,000/month or ¥1,000,000, start with an amount you can maintain—without strain or risk.

Chasing windfalls with risky leverage trades is far less realistic than steadily accumulating assets via DCA over ten years. Put aside greed, make time and diversification work for you, and take the first step with your own strategy—this is the surest way to become "Okuribito."

Bitcoin’s future remains bright. With proper strategy and patience, there are still ample opportunities to build substantial wealth starting now.

FAQ

Can I Still Become "Okuribito" by Starting to Invest in Bitcoin Now?

Yes. Bitcoin is expected to continue growing. Early entrants are more likely to benefit, and long-term holding offers strong potential for asset growth. Strategic timing makes aiming for "Okuribito" entirely practical.

What Indicators or Methods Help Identify the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin?

Key factors include ETF inflows, regulatory progress, supply constraints after halvings, Federal Reserve policy, and expansion of custody services. Pay attention to persistent high PPI and CBDC regulatory risks. Diversified, multi-stage purchases are the most effective approach.

Is Bitcoin’s Current Price Too High, or Is It a Good Time to Buy?

Bitcoin’s price is currently high, but from a long-term perspective, it’s still a buying opportunity. Ongoing ETF inflows and post-halving supply constraints support the market. While short-term volatility warrants caution, multi-year investments remain attractive.

What Strategies and Mindset Lead to Success in Bitcoin Investing?

Adopt a long-term view, practice regular purchases, and diversify. Monitor market trends, avoid emotional decisions, and invest only what you can afford. From 2026 onward, increased institutional adoption is expected to drive further value growth for Bitcoin.

What Are the Main Risks of Investing in Bitcoin?

The main risk is sharp price volatility, which can occur suddenly. Security risks such as hacking and theft also exist. Investors must exercise caution and diligence.

What Should Beginners Focus On When Starting to Invest in Bitcoin?

Risk management is crucial. Start small and invest only surplus funds. Understand market fluctuations, maintain a long-term perspective, and avoid emotional decisions—success comes from patience and strategy.