Global markets saw heightened volatility amid the continued escalation of the US Iran conflict and rising energy prices. WTI crude gained nearly 17% over the week and moved back above $100, pushing US Treasury yields higher, with the 10 year reaching 4.44%, while the US dollar strengthened. This weighed on risk assets, with the crypto market declining by more than 6% overall. The VIX rose to 31, and market sentiment fell into extreme fear territory. Overall, macro factors continue to drive market direction, while capital behavior remains cautious.
Last week highlights:
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Market focus: Escalating US Iran tensions pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar pressured crypto assets, with sentiment weakening significantly.
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Liquidity: BTC and ETH ETFs recorded about $500 million in net outflows mid week, followed by a modest rebound. Institutional positioning remained cautious. Perp DEX TradFi volume rose to around $17 billion, while CEX TradFi perpetual trading reached a new period high.
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On chain data: DEX activity declined overall, with leading protocols cooling down. Raydium volume fell about 50% week over week. Stablecoin supply remained elevated, with USDC decreasing by about $1.4 billion as capital shifted toward DeFi and USDC lending.
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Derivatives: BTC funding rates briefly turned positive before fluctuating again, without forming a sustained premium. Open interest declined to around $21B to $22.5B, indicating overall deleveraging and a market driven by existing positions.
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Outlook: Key events to watch include PMI, nonfarm payrolls, and multiple token unlocks that may impact liquidity.
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Institutional update: Gate continued to advance data driven and refined operations, with lending scale approaching bull market levels. On the product side, full rollout of Websocket contract BBO is upcoming, while AI assisted operations are gradually being implemented.
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