Iran conflict pushes oil prices near $100, European stock markets may open lower collectively, energy markets experience increased volatility

On March 12, news reports indicate that due to tense Middle East tensions and concerns over global energy supply, European stock markets opened weaker on Thursday. Market data shows that the FTSE 100 in the UK is expected to open about 0.2% lower, the DAX in Germany may fall around 1%, the CAC 40 in France is projected to open down 0.8%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB could decline approximately 1.1%. Investors are closely watching the escalation of tensions in Iran and the sharp fluctuations in oil prices, which are triggering a chain reaction in global financial markets.

The energy market became the focus of trading that day. To mitigate potential supply shocks, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that it will release about 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves. However, the agency did not specify the timing of the release, only stating that it will phase the release based on the actual situation of its 32 member countries.

Although this measure aims to stabilize market sentiment, traders remain cautious about short-term supply tightness. International oil prices continued to fluctuate significantly after the announcement, with Brent crude rising over 8% overnight and briefly reaching the $100 per barrel mark during trading. Analysts believe that if tensions in the Middle East persist, the global energy supply chain could face new uncertainties, which is a key reason for the ongoing rise in oil prices.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic policy news also exerted pressure on market sentiment. The Trump administration announced the launch of a new trade investigation program, which may scrutinize the EU and more than a dozen other economies. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that these investigations will be conducted under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the U.S. to impose additional tariffs on goods from countries deemed to be engaging in unfair trade practices.

Market observers note that if the trade investigations escalate further, it could put additional pressure on European export companies and increase uncertainty in global trade tensions.

On the corporate front, several major European companies are scheduled to release earnings reports today, including BMW, Generali, RWE, Hannover Re, Swiss Life, and Informa. The performance of these companies is seen as an important indicator of Europe’s economic resilience.

Additionally, the IEA will release its latest oil market report today. Investors expect this report to provide further details on global crude oil supply, inventory changes, and demand outlook, offering more clues for future oil price trends. Amid the intertwined factors of Middle East conflicts, energy supply, and trade policies, short-term volatility in European markets may continue to rise.