On May 21, Bitcoin rebounded to around $78,000. Citing Axios and three independent sources, U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a call on Tuesday regarding a U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement described as “difficult” in tone. Qatar has submitted a latest draft agreement to both the U.S. and Iran, with regional mediators including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt participating in synchronized revisions to the text; previously, a ceasefire between the two sides, which began on April 8, has been extended until now.
U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Update: Ceasefire Extended, Qatar Submits New Draft
According to confirmed information, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement negotiated by Pakistan was reached on April 8 and has been continuously extended since. On May 6, 2026, the White House said it was close to reaching an agreement on a one-page memorandum, aiming to formally end the war and establish a framework for follow-up nuclear talks.
Qatar’s delegation this week traveled to Tehran to discuss the latest draft text. Pakistan’s interior minister completed his second visit to Iran within less than a week. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that negotiations are currently based on Iran’s proposed 14-point plan. Iran is reviewing the updated proposal, but has not made any obvious concessions.
Mediators are pushing for both the U.S. and Iran to jointly sign a “Letter of Intent” to formally end the war and kick off a further 30-day round of talks, covering core issues including Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson clearly laid out three preconditions: the United States stops “piracy” targeting Iranian-flagged vessels, releases frozen funds, and Israel ends its military actions in Lebanon.
Disagreements Between Trump and Netanyahu: Diplomatic Route vs. Military Action
During the call, Trump briefed Netanyahu on the “Letter of Intent” framework pushed by mediators, but the two reportedly have clear differences on future course. Netanyahu takes a tougher stance, arguing for a return to military operations to further strike Iran’s military capabilities and key infrastructure, because he believes the current negotiation framework is not sufficient to genuinely constrain Iran.
A U.S. source familiar with the call said that after the conversation ended, “Netanyahu’s hair is almost on fire.” In response, a spokesperson for the Israeli mission to the U.S. denied that the Israeli ambassador had conveyed such concerns to U.S. lawmakers, and said, “The ambassador does not comment on private conversation content.”
In remarks at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy on the same day, Trump said, “The only question is, are we fully ending the Iran matter, or are they going to sign documents. Let’s see what happens.” He added that if they waited a few more days, it could avoid more people being harmed, “This is something worth doing.” Both the White House and the office of the Israeli prime minister declined to comment on the Axios report.
Bitcoin Market Background: Strategy’s BTC Accumulation This Year Has Exceeded Global Network Mining in the Same Period
Bitcoin is currently trading at about $77,423, down roughly 30% from a year ago. Support is in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, while resistance is in the $80,000 to $82,000 range. As of May 18, 2026, Strategy (MSTR) holds 843,738 BTC, with an average purchase cost of about $75,700, leaving less room than the current market price.
So far this year, Strategy has accumulated 171,238 BTC, exceeding the amount of Bitcoin produced by the global network’s mining in the same period by about 62,000 BTC. Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer confirmed that Strategy accounts for the majority of enterprise and ETF-related net Bitcoin purchases through 2026; market data show that over the past three weeks, its trading volume share was about 12% of Bitcoin’s total trading volume, with some single weeks exceeding 20%.
Strategy primarily raises funds through STRC perpetual preferred shares. The instrument provides a 11.5% annual cash dividend; as of May 3, it had already raised $5.8 billion via STRC, and STRC traded at $99.29 on May 19. Strategy management recently stated for the first time that selling some BTC could help improve its capital structure or meet STRC dividend payment needs. The company did not rule out this option, but also said that for any amount sold, it would buy “significantly more” BTC. 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen noted that Bitcoin demand is increasingly relying on “financial engineering,” rather than natural market forces. The key factors that drove the 2024 bull market—such as ETF arbitrage fund inflows, retail participation, and miners’ long-term holding behavior—are all clearly weakening.
Five Unconfirmed Items the Market Is Currently Watching
· Whether the U.S. and Iran officially sign the ceasefire “Letter of Intent,” and whether initial framework talks can be achieved within the “few days” Trump has allowed
· Whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in accordance with the preconditions required by Iran
· Whether Iran makes verifiable specific commitments on its nuclear program based on the 14-point plan
· Whether the U.S. clearly defines a timeline for unfreezing Iranian funds (one of the key conditions confirmed by Iran)
· Whether Strategy’s STRC financing size remains stable when the average BTC price is near the market price
FAQ
What specific confirmed terms does the U.S.-Iran “Letter of Intent” include?
Based on Axios sources, the “Letter of Intent” framework is designed as follows: after the U.S. and Iran jointly sign it, the war is formally ended and followed by a 30-day round of negotiations, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clearly proposed three preconditions: the United States stops “piracy” involving Iranian-flagged vessels, releases frozen funds, and Israel ends its military actions in Lebanon.
What financial instrument is Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, and how does it support Bitcoin purchases?
STRC is a perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy, listed on Nasdaq, with a par value of $100, providing an 11.5% annual cash dividend (paid monthly). Strategy uses funds raised via STRC to continuously purchase spot BTC. As of May 3, 2026, it has accumulated $5.8 billion raised through this instrument. The company’s goal is to accumulate 1 million BTC by the end of 2026, requiring a purchase pace of about $540 million per week.
How does the status of the Strait of Hormuz affect Bitcoin and other crypto assets?
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil and natural gas transportation; its blockade or reopening directly affects global energy prices. Energy costs are a core variable in bitcoin mining profitability. At the same time, increases or decreases in geopolitical risk premia affect overall sentiment toward global risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. In a May 20 earnings conference call, Canaan CEO Zhang Nangeng also explicitly listed “uncertainty in the Middle East situation and energy prices” as one of the direct reasons for the pressure currently facing the mining industry.
