Bitcoin April Rally Built on Futures, Not Spot Demand: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin climbed 20% in April, surging from roughly $66,000 to a monthly peak of $79,000, but according to analysis from crypto data firm CryptoQuant released Thursday, the rally may have been built on speculative positioning rather than genuine buyer demand. The firm found that the entire price advance was driven by growth in perpetual futures demand—a form of leveraged, speculative trading—while spot demand, which reflects genuine coin accumulation by buyers, remained in negative territory throughout April.

Futures-Driven Rally Lacks Spot Confirmation

CryptoQuant’s “apparent demand” metric, which tracks the 30-day change in estimated on-chain spot buying activity, never turned positive during April’s price surge. The firm notes that this divergence is a meaningful warning sign: rallies grounded in spot demand reflect real buyers taking delivery of Bitcoin, while rallies grounded in futures reflect traders placing leveraged bets on price direction without necessarily holding the underlying asset. When futures positioning eventually unwinds, prices tend to fall—sometimes sharply.

Historical Parallel to 2022 Bear Market

The pattern mirrors the onset of the 2022 bear market, when an almost identical demand signature emerged: perpetual futures demand rose while spot apparent demand contracted simultaneously. That configuration preceded a sustained, multi-month price collapse that would eventually see Bitcoin lose roughly 70% of its value from its peak.

Bitcoin has already begun to pull back from its April high, sliding to around $76,400—a move the firm describes as consistent with the historical fragility of futures-led rallies that lack spot-demand confirmation.

Bull Score Declines to Bearish Territory

Compounding the concern, CryptoQuant’s proprietary Bull Score Index—a composite of on-chain and market indicators rated on a scale of zero to 100—declined from 50 to 40 during April, falling back below the neutral threshold into bearish territory. The index had briefly reached 50, a neutral reading, in mid-April, only to retreat as speculative activity peaked and faded.

CryptoQuant stopped short of predicting a full market reversal, but the message was cautious: without a shift in apparent demand from negative to positive, any renewed attempt to reclaim the $79,000 peak would lack the on-chain foundation required for a durable breakout.

Market Sentiment Remains Bullish

Despite analyst concerns, users on Myriad—a prediction market operated by Dastan—remain bullish on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, pricing in a more than 70% probability that the coin’s next move is a rise to $84,000 rather than a plunge to $55,000.