According to SoSoValue data, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $277 million in net outflows on Thursday, snapping a five-day inflow streak totaling $1.69 billion. Bitcoin traded below $80,000 Friday as all 10 spot ether ETFs posted $104 million in outflows the same day, signaling a reversal in institutional momentum amid macro uncertainty.
The flow reversal coincided with renewed geopolitical tensions over the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. Prediction markets priced a 97% probability of no Hormuz normalization by May 15, with reports of fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz lifting crude oil prices and unwinding earlier gains in risk assets. Meanwhile, perpetual swap markets priced over 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by April 2027, keeping rate-cut expectations pushed to 2028 despite April’s jobs report exceeding forecasts at 115,000 new positions.
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