Bitcoin Faces Three Major Headwinds as Market Enters Fragile Consolidation Phase: CoinShares

According to a CoinShares report on July 11, Bitcoin is facing three major pressures: the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, uncertainty over the Iran situation, and setbacks in advancing the Clarity Act. The June FOMC minutes showed the Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% while removing dovish language, with risks of a September rate hike persisting. Iran's fragile ceasefire agreement is intensifying geopolitical pressure and pushing Bitcoin toward macro asset trading.

Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows of approximately $8 billion over eight consecutive weeks, though net inflows returned over the past three trading days, suggesting the market may be approaching a capitulation phase. Meanwhile, the Clarity Act lacks congressional support momentum with core disputes unresolved; market-implied probability of passage has declined from 74% a month ago to approximately 48%. Overall, the market remains under pressure but has not collapsed, with Bitcoin in a fragile consolidation stage.