Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 on Tuesday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14 that US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the largest one-month decrease since April 2020. The decline drove annual inflation to 3.5% from 4.2%, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its July 28–29 meeting. Bitcoin traded near $64,700 at the time of writing, up about 3.5% in 24 hours, while Ether changed hands near $1,875, a gain of roughly 5.2%, according to CoinGecko data. Markets priced roughly 80% odds the Fed would maintain rates at 3.50%–3.75%, and 21Shares strategist Matt Mena flagged a possible $100,000 push by quarter-end. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% since late 2025, with June projections pencilling in a median end-2026 rate of 3.8%.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Reports 0.4% June CPI Decline
June's 0.4% decline followed a 0.5% rise in May, and economists had expected a smaller dip, according to consensus estimates cited in market coverage. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the energy index fell 5.7% over the month, its steepest one-month decline since April 2020, with gasoline down 9.7%. Energy was the largest contributor to the fall, more than offsetting increases in shelter and food. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, were flat on the month and up 2.6% over the year, down from 2.9%. Energy prices remain 15.7% higher than a year earlier, with gasoline up 26.7% over the same period, the Bureau's data showed. Shelter costs rose 0.1% in June, the smallest monthly increase for that index since January 2021, and the food index added 0.2% on the month and 3.0% over the year.
Markets Price 80% Odds for Fed Rate Hold at July 28–29 Meeting
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% since late 2025, and its June projections pencilled in a median end-2026 rate of 3.8%, implying at least one hike this year. Nine of the meeting's 18 participants saw at least one increase in 2026, against eight expecting no change and one projecting a cut. After the June print, market pricing put roughly 80% odds on rates staying unchanged at the July 28–29 meeting, per CME FedWatch data cited in market coverage.
Sygnum CIO Attributes Decline to Fading Energy Impulse
Sygnum chief investment officer Fabian Dori characterised the report as "the first real indication that the energy-driven impulse from the spring is fading". Energy prices remain 15.7% higher than a year earlier, with gasoline up 26.7% over the same period, the Bureau's data showed.
FAQ
What caused Bitcoin to climb above $64,000 on Tuesday?
Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14 that US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, driving annual inflation to 3.5% from 4.2% and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its July 28–29 meeting.
How did the June CPI data affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve's July meeting?
After the June CPI print, market pricing put roughly 80% odds on the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% during its July 28–29 meeting, per CME FedWatch data cited in market coverage.
What were the main drivers of the 0.4% June consumer price decline?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the energy index fell 5.7% over the month, its steepest one-month decline since April 2020, with gasoline down 9.7%. Energy was the largest contributor to the fall, more than offsetting increases in shelter and food.
