BTC rises 0.43% in 15 minutes: surge in safe-haven demand as the US-Iran conflict escalates

From 15:30 to 15:45 (UTC) on July 14, 2026, BTC increased by 0.43% within 15 minutes. The price range was $64,498.0–$64,958.2 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.71%. BTC gained approximately 2.40% over the past 24 hours, rebounding from a low of $61,826 to around $64,265. It moved in tandem with gold, strengthening and rising above $4,013, exhibiting a typical pattern of safe-haven capital inflows.

The primary driver behind this sudden move is a sharp escalation in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict. The U.S. launched a third consecutive round of overnight strikes on Iran. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil surged to a one-month high of $85 per barrel, posing major risks to the global energy supply chain. Trump notified Congress to resume hostilities and proposed imposing a 20% toll on the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict's intensity exceeded market expectations, driving safe-haven assets higher in tandem.

Additionally, Fed Chair Warsh stated he has “zero tolerance” for high inflation but did not provide a clear signal regarding rate hikes. The probability of a rate increase in July is priced at 42.2%, and the market interpreted this as a lack of aggressive tightening in the near term, allowing risk assets room to breathe. The timing of the oil price rally closely overlaps with BTC’s rise, confirming the transmission chain of “geopolitical risk → inflation expectations → safe-haven positioning.”

Risk warning: The current order book is dominated by heavy sell orders. The buy-sell depth ratio is only 0.18. At $64,268, there is a large sell wall (0.6206 BTC accounts for 84.8% of the total amount in the top 5 levels), indicating near-term overhead selling pressure. The 15-minute RSI is already overbought, and the ADX is as high as 48.5, suggesting short-term momentum is nearing exhaustion. The bearish bias from the 4-hour MA conflicts with bullish signals from the daily MA. Monitor whether the $64,268 sell wall is broken, as well as any further comments from Trump’s Thursday gold-session speech on the Iran war.