BTC rose 0.38% in 15 minutes: Geopolitical conflict triggers a Strait of Hormuz crisis, as safe-haven demand and expectations of further rate hikes are at an impasse

From 2026-07-14 00:45 to 01:00 (UTC), BTC increased by 0.38% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from 62,310.6 to 62,663.5 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.57%. In the previous 24 hours, BTC declined from a high of 63,994 USDT to 62,503 USDT, a drop of about 1.89%, exhibiting a surge-then-retrace pattern that indicates intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

The main drivers behind this unusual movement are the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran military conflict. The US Central Command launched multiple strikes against Iranian targets. Iran retaliated against US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Trump announced a ban on Iranian vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and imposed a 20% transit fee on cargo from other countries. Oil prices surged nearly 4%, approaching $80 per barrel. Inflation expectations quickly rose, the DXY weakened, and funds flowed into BTC as a safe-haven alternative.

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces coordinated with the US military to prepare for a possible Iranian strike on Israel, increasing the risk of regional war escalation. The transmission chain—geopolitical conflict → oil price spike → inflation rise → USD weakness—is clear. Safe-haven demand supports BTC. Conversely, the probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in July increased to 46.5%. Expectations of rate hikes weigh on risk asset valuations, causing a two-way pull and resulting in BTC consolidating in a high range followed by a pullback. Order book data shows a significant buy-wall support near $62,500. The bid-to-ask depth ratio is 12.92, indicating an order flow heavily dominated by bids.

Volatility risks remain for now. Going forward, key factors to watch include whether the US-Iran conflict escalates further, the Fed’s decision at its July meeting, and whether oil prices can break above $80 per barrel. For short-term support, monitor 62,500 USDT (order book buy-wall) and 61,826 USDT. For resistance, watch 63,994 USDT.