BTC rises slightly 0.33% in 15 minutes: geopolitical risk premium eases and weaker USD expectations provide support

From 19:45 to 20:00 (UTC) on July 28, 2026, BTC saw a slight rebound of 0.33% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from 63,900.3 USDT to 63,675.4 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.35%. The candlestick volume was about 1,031 BTC; there was no breakout on rising volume. Overall, the market remains in a tight range consolidation, with intense back-and-forth between buyers and sellers around $63,860.

The main drivers behind this modest uptick come from two areas. First, the Israel–Iran conflict reached a temporary ceasefire, easing the situation in the Strait of Hormuz for the time being. Oil prices fell 6.3%, causing the geopolitical risk premium to drop in the short term. This reduces the urgency of safe-haven capital flowing into gold, and some funds have rotated into risk assets such as BTC. Second, Trump met with Netanyahu, sending signals of a diplomatic solution. Market concerns about the conflict escalating comprehensively were eased. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch shows a 62% probability of holding interest rates steady, and the USD weakened in the near term, providing marginal support for BTC.

However, bearish factors are also evident. The probability of the Fed raising rates in September is still as high as 81%, and mid-term policy uncertainty constitutes a downward pressure on the market. Order Book data shows the bid/ask depth ratio is only 0.55; sell-side pressure is about 1.8 times that of bids. At $63,860.1, there is a sell wall accounting for 48.5% of the top 5 order levels, indicating that sell-side strength still has the advantage. Technically, the 1-hour ADX at 36.1 confirms the short-term downtrend remains effective. The daily chart is supported by the MA, but ADX is only 13.4, leaving the medium-term direction unclear.

At present, BTC is quoted around $63,862, down 1.52% over the past 24 hours. Investors should closely watch this week’s Fed meeting, the stability of the $62,745 support level, and whether the bid/ask ratio in the Order Book can rebound to above 1.0. Uncertainty remains in the Middle East; if the ceasefire breaks down, safe-haven sentiment could pick up. Stay alert to risks from short-term volatility.