According to China Customs, China's fuel oil imports in the second quarter of 2026 totaled 2.5187 million tonnes, declining 63.36% month-on-month and 44.35% year-on-year. For the first half of 2026, cumulative fuel oil imports reached 9.392 million tonnes, down 3.62% year-on-year.
Gold Credit Analytics attributed the sharp Q2 decline to a combination of weakening domestic demand, tightening supply from source countries, and volatile high costs. Looking ahead to Q3, the firm expects fuel oil imports may rebound modestly from Q2 lows, supported by improving refinery margins, rising refinery utilization rates, and seasonal demand. However, unresolved Middle East tensions, Russia's unstable situation, broad oil price fluctuations, and lingering supply concerns may limit the scope of recovery.