CLARITY Act Faces 34% Passage Odds, Two Senate Vote Windows Before August Recess

The CLARITY Act, which defines whether digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction, faces two remaining floor vote windows before the August recess: the weeks of July 20 and July 27. According to Polymarket, current passage odds in 2026 are approximately 34% and falling. If both windows are missed, Senator Lummis has warned that market structure legislation could slip to 2030 or die entirely at the end of the 119th Congress in January 2027.

The primary obstacles are political and structural. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand have demanded ethics provisions preventing senior officials and members of Congress from profiting off the crypto industry; the merged draft currently omits such language. Senator Ron Wyden and others have raised law enforcement concerns that the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provision could impair criminal investigations by shielding non-custodial software developers from money transmitter obligations. Senate leadership needs 60 votes, but the Republican coalition is fractured, potentially requiring as many as nine Democratic crossovers to reach the threshold.