CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Risk Rises Amid Bear Market Rally

Bitcoin profit-taking could increase further after the recent price rally, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the start of April to a three-month high, driven by earlier undervaluation, easing macroeconomic pressure, and increased perpetual futures demand, CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno said in a report. Despite the rally, Moreno classifies the move as a "bear market rally."

On-Chain Profit Realization Signals

Bitcoin holders have already realized 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025, according to Moreno. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), an indicator used to track whether short-term holders are selling at profit or loss, also rose to 1.016 and has remained above 1.00 since mid-April, Moreno noted.

"Bitcoin has been in clear profit-taking territory continuously since mid-April, confirming that the recent price appreciation has prompted broad holder distribution," Moreno said.

Structural Inflection in Holder Profitability

On a 30-day rolling basis, bitcoin holders are realizing +20,000 BTC in net profits, the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, following a period of heavy net losses in February and March that reached as deep as -398,000 BTC, according to Moreno.

"The shift from net loss realization to net profit realization is a structural inflection point in bear market dynamics," he said. "The crossing back into positive net territory reflects the degree to which the April–May price rally has restored profitability across the holder base."

However, the current net profit levels of +20,000 BTC remain far below the 130,000 BTC to 200,000 BTC range historically associated with confirmed bull market transitions, Moreno noted. He said this distinction "reinforces the bear market rally classification rather than a structural regime change."

Unrealized Profits and Correction Risk

Unrealized profit margins are currently around 18%, compared with unrealized losses of -29% during February and March, according to Moreno. Historically, when unrealized profits rise to high levels, holders become more likely to sell and lock in gains, increasing correction risk.

However, a correction may take time to materialize because demand conditions remain relatively supportive, Moreno said. Perpetual futures demand continues to grow strongly, spot demand contraction remains mild rather than severe, and exchange inflows remain muted. This combination of factors "is consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak," Moreno said.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,180, nearly flat in the past 24 hours, according to The Block.