CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April Rally 'Speculative,' Spot Demand Weak

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin’s recent price gains represent a “speculative rally” rather than fundamental buying support, increasing correction risk. According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin rose approximately 20% in April, climbing from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000, but this movement was driven primarily by perpetual futures demand while spot demand remained negative throughout the period.

Perpetual Futures Drive Rally, Spot Demand Contracts

Moreno stated in a report: “Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of bitcoin’s April price rally, while spot apparent demand contracted throughout, a configuration historically associated with unsustained price gains during bear markets.” This divergence—rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand—represents one of the clearest onchain signals that the rally is speculative rather than structural, according to CryptoQuant. The firm noted that the price rise appears driven by leverage rather than fresh bitcoin accumulation.

“Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation required to sustain price gains and typically resolve via correction once futures positioning unwinds,” Moreno said.

Pattern Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Start

CryptoQuant identified the current demand pattern as similar to conditions at the start of the 2022 bear market. While the firm noted this does not guarantee the same outcome this time, the current structure carries “meaningful downside risk.” The analysis emphasized that without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive, rallies back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the onchain support needed for a sustained breakout.

Bull Score Index Signals Deterioration

The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, returning to bearish territory below the neutral threshold. According to CryptoQuant, this decline confirms onchain fundamentals deteriorated following the recent speculative futures-driven price rally. The Bull Score Index aggregates multiple onchain and market indicators on a 0–100 scale, with scores above 50 indicating bullish conditions and below 50 indicating bearish conditions.

CryptoQuant concluded: “The Bull Score of returning back to 40 indicates conditions are ‘getting bearish’ and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness.”

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $78,500, nearly flat over the previous 24 hours.