Ethereum must reclaim two major weekly moving averages before its chart structure turns bullish, according to analyst Ali Charts on X. The analyst stated ETH needs to move back above the 200-week simple moving average at $2,500, then break cleanly above the 50-week SMA at $3,100. Ali Charts made the assessment based on Ethereum's current position below both technical indicators. Separately, analyst Sky on X pointed to a breakdown in WTI crude oil prices as a potential inverse signal for Ethereum, suggesting ETH could move back above $4,000 if the oil decline continues toward the $60 range. The technical analysis comes as Ethereum trades below key resistance levels that previously acted as support during bullish market phases.
Ethereum Requires Dual Breakout Above $2,500 and $3,100
Ali Charts identified two specific price levels Ethereum must reclaim before bulls regain control of the market structure. The first trigger point sits at the 200-week SMA near $2,500. The analyst stated a move above that level would demonstrate buyers are starting to regain control of the longer-term trend.
The second confirmation level sits at the 50-week SMA near $3,100. Ali Charts said Ethereum would need a clean breakout above this moving average after clearing the $2,500 threshold. The $3,100 level sits closer to the next major resistance area on the weekly chart.
The analyst's chart shows Ethereum currently trading below both major moving averages. That positioning keeps ETH under technical pressure despite its recent rebound from lower support zones.
If Ethereum clears the $3,100 resistance, Ali Charts indicated the price structure would appear stronger. That breakout could shift market attention toward higher resistance near $3,335. The chart also marks a larger upside target near $4,868, which aligns with the previous cycle high area. ETH would need to clear several resistance zones before that level becomes relevant again.
On the downside, Ali Charts' analysis shows support near $1,562, with a deeper level marked around $1,069. These areas remain important if Ethereum fails to reclaim the weekly moving averages. The analyst did not provide a timeline for when these breakout attempts might occur.
Oil Price Breakdown Could Signal Ethereum Rebound
WTI crude oil has broken below a diamond top pattern on the daily chart, and analyst Sky stated the move could act as an inverse signal for Ethereum. The chart shared on X shows oil falling out of a consolidation structure after failing to hold the lower trendline.
Sky said crude oil could move toward the $60 range, while ETH could head back above $4,000 if the inverse setup plays out. The analyst bases this correlation on historical inverse relationships between oil prices and cryptocurrency markets.
The daily oil chart shows price forming a diamond pattern after a rally from the low $50s to the $110–$120 area. Price then moved sideways inside the structure before breaking below its lower boundary. Diamond top patterns often mark a loss of momentum after a major upside move.
The breakdown pushed oil below the pattern and away from the moving average cluster near the $98–$100 area. Sky's chart marks a lower target area in the $60s, which sits far below the breakdown point and represents the next major downside target.
The analyst also stated he would add more BMNR if oil retests the red moving average line near the broken structure. Sky did not specify the exact moving average period or provide a timeline for the potential oil decline or corresponding ETH rally.
The oil chart shows a confirmed break below the diamond structure. The next test for the inverse correlation theory is whether crude oil continues lower or retests the former support zone as resistance.
