Goldman Sachs Warns Brent Crude Could Hit $120 as Iran Conflict Escalates

According to Goldman Sachs, on July 21, Brent crude briefly broke above $91 per barrel amid U.S.-Iran military escalation, with analysts warning the price could reach $120 or higher in the fourth quarter if disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue. This outcome is not the bank's base case; Goldman's central forecast assumes Middle East tensions ease, with Brent averaging $80 per barrel in Q4.

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Both Brent and WTI crude gained over 15% in the week to July 20, with Brent rising from $88-89 and WTI from $81-83, driven by supply concerns from the escalating conflict.