Hayashi Sanae again to Iran’s president: 1 Japanese oil tanker has cleared the Strait of Hormuz, and there are still multiple more ships to pass in the Persian Gulf

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Takahashi [Note: original text says “高市早苗” which is Sanaa Takaichi] posted on X at 7:06 p.m. Taiwan time on April 30, announcing that he would hold another phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and reporting that a Japanese-related vessel carrying three Japanese crew members has safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Takaichi also stressed that there are still multiple Japanese-related ships waiting to transit within the Persian Gulf, and that Japan will continue diplomatic efforts with Iran, while again expressing to the Iranian side its “strong expectation that the U.S.-Iran agreement will be restarted soon and reach a final consensus.”

4/30 call: 1 Japanese oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi oil safely passes through the strait

This is the second time that Shigeru Takaichi has spoken directly with Pezeshkian since February 28, when Iran went to war with the United States and Israel (the first was a 25-minute phone call on April 8). According to reports by foreign media, the Japanese-related vessel that safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz this time was an oil tanker carrying about 2 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, which has already sailed out of the Persian Gulf. In his post, Takaichi conveyed to Pezeshkian his position that, “from the perspective of protecting Japanese nationals, the passage this time is positive progress.”

Pezeshkian, meanwhile, explained Iran’s judgments and position regarding the future direction of the situation (the specific content was not disclosed by either side). Both sides agreed to “maintain close communication and coordination in the future.” At the end of his post, Takaichi said that Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and the local embassy are still coordinating with the Iranian side on an ongoing basis, with the goal of ensuring that all Japanese-related ships in the Persian Gulf can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

Since the 2/28 war: the extension of Japan’s Middle East energy security mediation line

Japan’s high sensitivity to the Strait of Hormuz stems from the structural vulnerability of its energy structure: Japan imports about 90% of its crude oil, and more than four-fifths of its LNG comes from the Middle East, the vast majority of which must be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. On March 21, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began setting up “toll booths” in the strait, and the volume of passage reportedly fell by as much as 90% at one point, forcing Japan to urgently initiate resupply and assess alternative shipping routes.

On March 13, Takaichi posted late at night announcing that he had met with the G7 and would take emergency measures to ease the oil crisis; on April 8, for the first time, he spoke with Pezeshkian and emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is a “global logistics strategic chokepoint and an international public good.” Today’s April 30 second call moved into an implementation stage of “specific vessels safely passing through.” From the pace of diplomacy, this mediation channel has progressed from early dialogue to the acceptance of phased outcomes.

Oil prices, the yen, shifts in OPEC: multiple sources of pressure on Japan’s economy

Despite one oil tanker successfully passing and progress on the diplomatic front, the overall Middle East situation continues to create multiple pressures on Japan’s economy. On the oil price front, Trump on April 29 said he would expand the blockade of Iranian ports, causing Brent crude to break above $114 at one point and WTI to rise 3.3%. Goldman Sachs even raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecast to $90, warning that “crude oil production capacity could be permanently badly damaged.”

On the currency front, the Bank of Japan’s April 27 interest rate decision remained unchanged, and the Japanese yen, near the 159.5 resistance level, along with the dual pressure of imported inflation and a weak yen, is pushing the real costs for Japanese companies to import energy higher quickly. On the supply side, the UAE will exit OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, and the Middle East energy supply-demand structure is showing the most severe upheaval since the 2008 financial crisis. For Japan, “diplomatic mediation to ensure navigation safety” and “market structural energy risk” are fought on two parallel fronts. Takaichi’s second phone call with Pezeshkian is phased progress on the former, but it cannot ease the latter’s systemic pressure.

This article — Takaichi holds another call with Iran’s president: 1 Japanese oil tanker passes through Hormuz, with multiple ships still awaiting passage in the Persian Gulf — first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.