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Kalshi's Non-Farm Payroll Forecasts Show No Edge Over Economists, Average Errors Exceed 60,000 Jobs

Prediction Market

2026-05-07 09:44:20

According to Bloomberg, Kalshi traders' predictions on U.S. non-farm payroll data showed no significant advantage over Bloomberg survey economists over the past 33 months, with average forecast errors exceeding 60,000 jobs for both groups. In April 2026, when the actual non-farm payroll report showed 178,000 new jobs added, Kalshi's final forecast error exceeded 90,000 jobs.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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