Meritz Leveraged Agricultural ETN Surges 9.1% This Month on Super El Niño Forecast

According to Korea Exchange, Meritz Leveraged Agricultural ETN rose 9.1% through July 10, significantly outperforming South Korea's benchmark equity index, which fell 11.8% over the same period. Individual commodity ETNs tracking wheat, corn, and soybeans also climbed 5.9% to 8.8%.

The gains reflect expectations of a super El Niño, as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 63% probability the phenomenon will strengthen by November with sea surface temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius above normal. However, analysts caution that El Niño's impact varies by region and commodity: increased rainfall in major grain-producing regions of the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina may limit upside for grains like wheat and corn. Soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee, and raw sugar face greater supply risks, as El Niño typically reduces precipitation in Indonesia, Vietnam, and India. Global cocoa supply forecasts for 2026-2027 have contracted from 267,000 tons to 149,000 tons, suggesting higher price volatility for soft commodities relative to grains.