Polymarket U.S.-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Probability by Aug 31 at 51%, Down 3% Weekly

According to PPP's prediction market monitoring on Polymarket as of July 24, the probability of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran by August 31 currently stands at 51%, down 3% from last week. The August 14 deadline carries a 34% probability, down 1% weekly. Per market settlement rules, a "Yes" outcome requires 14 consecutive days without U.S. military strikes directly targeting Iranian territory via airstrikes or missile attacks.

The U.S. military has conducted strikes on Iranian targets for 13 consecutive nights, while Iran has rejected Trump's ceasefire proposal. Sources indicate Trump is increasingly frustrated with the prolonged conflict, with advisors concerned that mounting casualties, inflation, and declining approval ratings are straining his administration's political capital ahead of mid-term elections.