Scum Silver Analyst: Strategy shift toward ambiguous signals suppresses BTC; MSTR stock drops over 70% year-over-year

BTC-1.52%
MSTR0.77%
STRC2.03%

Standard Chartered Bank’s global head of crypto asset research, Geoff Kendrick, said in an analysis report sent to clients on July 11 that Strategy chairman Michael Saylor’s communication about its Bitcoin strategy shift was not clear enough, which may confuse the market about the BTC price in the short term. MSTR stock closed on Friday at $94.64, down more than 70% since July 2025.

Strategy’s Strategy Shift: From “Never Sell” to Selling BTC to Prioritize STRC Preferred Dividend Payments

According to the report, Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy has undergone a significant change: its previous long-standing stance of “never selling Bitcoin” has shifted to a new model of “selling BTC when needed to pay STRC preferred share dividends.”

Earlier this month, Strategy sold Bitcoin for $216 million; based on an 8-K filing submitted to the SEC on July 6, 2026, the company currently holds 843,775 BTC. On Sunday, Saylor posted a Saylortracker chart on social media and wrote, “The orange dots only tell part of the story.” This posting style is almost identical to the past pattern before adding to positions, but the market has not yet been able to determine the exact meaning of this signal.

Kendrick’s Main Criticism: Unclear Communication Suppresses BTC in the Short Term

In a statement in Standard Chartered’s Friday analysis report, Kendrick said Strategy’s recent actions and Saylor’s communication “have blurred BTC’s trajectory in the short term.” Kendrick said: “We believe effectively communicating MSTR’s new strategy (using BTC to support STRC) is key to calming the market and avoiding large-scale selloffs; this would in turn support the BTC price. If this market signal proves effective, MSTR would not even need to actually sell any BTC to support STRC’s price.”

Kendrick also pointed out that Strategy’s long-term “never sell” approach instead “has limited what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do.” He is optimistic about the market signal becoming clearer and said Standard Chartered’s year-end Bitcoin target price forecast remains at $100,000. All of the above are Kendrick’s personal views.

MSTR Stock’s 12-Month Performance and Q2 Earnings Outlook

Based on market data, Strategy (MSTR)’s current financial situation is as follows:

Friday’s closing price: $94.64

52-week high: $457.22

Past 12-month decline: more than 70%

STRC preferred stock: fell last month to its lowest level since its launch

Q2 earnings report date: expected to be released on July 30, 2026

Analyst Q2 EPS consensus: $4.28 per share (Yahoo Finance data)

Earnings history: in the past eight quarters, six were below analysts’ expectations; a negative surprise of 33.76% occurred in Q1 2026 (Fintel.io data)

FAQ

Why did Standard Chartered’s Kendrick criticize Saylor’s market communication approach?

Based on Kendrick’s Friday report, the core of the criticism is that Strategy has shifted from “never sell Bitcoin” to “sell BTC to pay STRC preferred dividends,” but Saylor’s public communication continued the old pattern (posts with Bitcoin charts), making it difficult for the market to judge the company’s latest strategy; this blurred signal is unfavorable to BTC’s price action in the short term. Kendrick’s view is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.

What are the main risks for MSTR stock right now?

According to the report, MSTR stock closed on Friday at $94.64, down more than 70% from the 52-week high of $457.22; in the past eight quarters, six were below analysts’ earnings expectations; STRC preferred stock fell to its lowest point since its launch; Strategy has also started selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, breaking the prior “never sell” commitment. The specific share price is subject to real-time market quotes; the above does not constitute investment advice.

What is Standard Chartered’s year-end target price for Bitcoin, and how does Kendrick assess the BTC outlook?

Based on Kendrick’s report, Standard Chartered’s year-end Bitcoin target price forecast remains at $100,000; Kendrick personally expects Strategy’s market signals to become clearer, and believes that if an effective market signal is established, MSTR would even be able to support the STRC dividend payment capacity without actually selling BTC. All of the above are Kendrick’s personal views.

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