SemiAnalysis: Storage Has 2-3x Upside as CPO Mass Production Delayed to Late 2028

According to SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel in a podcast on July 10, memory will face a structural shortage lasting multiple years due to inference-driven KV cache growth outpacing production capacity gains of only 20-30% annually. Memory prices have already risen fourfold and retain 2-3x upside potential, with consumer electronics bearing the initial pressure. Patel stated that copper-based solutions will persist through Nvidia's Rubin and subsequent Feynman architectures, extending the window for copper interconnect demand.

Regarding chiplet-based optical interconnects (CPO), Patel projects mass production will not materialize until late 2028 to 2029, citing unresolved manufacturing yields, chip design maturity, and supply chain readiness challenges.