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Traders Ramp Up Fed Funds Rate Futures Short Bets as July Rate Hike Odds Rise to 36%

2026-06-30 22:06:04

Traders are increasing bets that the Federal Reserve could begin raising rates as early as July, a scenario previously considered unlikely. Interest rate swaps currently reflect approximately 9 basis points of rate increase priced in, equivalent to a roughly 36% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the July policy meeting, up significantly from near-zero odds before Fed Chair Kevin Wash shifted focus toward price stability.

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