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Traders Split on Fed Rate Hike Next Week: 30% Odds of 25 Basis Point Increase vs 70% Hold Probability

2026-07-22 19:22:42

According to Bloomberg, traders show significant divergence on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points next week, with swap markets pricing a 30% probability of a hike and 70% odds of holding rates steady. Such a wide divergence so close to a rate decision is relatively rare in recent years. Fed Chair Kevin Powell has broken the previous practice of pre-signaling the central bank's next moves, making market expectations increasingly difficult to predict under his leadership.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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