US June CPI Falls 0.4% Month-over-Month for First Time in Six Years, Headline Inflation Eases to 3.5%

According to inflation data released in June 2026, US Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% month-over-month—the first monthly decline in six years—with headline inflation easing to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core CPI annual rate declined to 2.6%. Following the disinflationary print, Fed rate hike odds for July fell to approximately 83% probability of rates remaining unchanged, while July hike probability dropped to 10%. Markets showed mixed reaction, with energy and financial sectors leading gains as the S&P 500 held near record levels, while the tech sector corrected and Nasdaq declined 0.4%.
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